Related papers: Shallow Neural Hawkes: Non-parametric kernel estim…

Multivariate Hawkes processes (MHP) are a class of point processes in which events at different coordinates interact through mutual excitation. The weighted adjacency matrix of the MHP encodes the strength of the relations, and shares its…

Hawkes Processes have undergone increasing popularity as default tools for modeling self- and mutually exciting interactions of discrete events in continuous-time event streams. A Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) unconstrained…

Multivariate Hawkes processes are past-dependant point processes originally introduced to model excitation effects, later extended to a nonlinear framework to account for the opposite effect, known as inhibition. Motivated by applications…

In this paper, we present a nonparametric estimation procedure for the multivariate Hawkes point process. The timeline is cut into bins and -- for each component process -- the number of points in each bin is counted. The distribution of…

Hawkes processes have recently gained increasing attention from the machine learning community for their versatility in modeling event sequence data. While they have a rich history going back decades, some of their properties, such as…

We propose a simulation method for multidimensional Hawkes processes based on superposition theory of point processes. This formulation allows us to design efficient simulations for Hawkes processes with differing exponentially decaying…

Univariate marked Hawkes processes are used to model a range of real-world phenomena including earthquake aftershock sequences, contagious disease spread, content diffusion on social media platforms, and order book dynamics. This paper…

Multivariate point processes are widely applied to model event-type data such as natural disasters, online message exchanges, financial transactions or neuronal spike trains. One very popular point process model in which the probability of…

In this paper we consider multivariate Hawkes processes with baseline hazard and kernel functions that depend on time. This defines a class of locally stationary processes. We discuss estimation of the time-dependent baseline hazard and…

In this paper, we consider the sigmoid Gaussian Hawkes process model: the baseline intensity and triggering kernel of Hawkes process are both modeled as the sigmoid transformation of random trajectories drawn from Gaussian processes (GP).…

The self-exciting Hawkes process is widely used to model events which occur in bursts. However, many real world data sets contain missing events and/or noisily observed event times, which we refer to as data distortion. The presence of such…

We introduce a new non parametric method that allows for a direct, fast and efficient estimation of the matrix of kernel norms of a multivariate Hawkes process, also called branching ratio matrix. We demonstrate the capabilities of this…

Asynchronous events on the continuous time domain, e.g., social media actions and stock transactions, occur frequently in the world. The ability to recognize occurrence patterns of event sequences is crucial to predict which typeof events…

Quantifying uncertainty in neural network predictions is essential for high-stakes domains such as autonomous driving, healthcare, and manufacturing. While existing approaches often depend on costly sampling or restrictive distributional…

There is much interest in the Hierarchical Dirichlet Process Hidden Markov Model (HDP-HMM) as a natural Bayesian nonparametric extension of the ubiquitous Hidden Markov Model for learning from sequential and time-series data. However, in…

This paper proposes a new meta-learning method -- named HARMLESS (HAwkes Relational Meta LEarning method for Short Sequences) for learning heterogeneous point process models from short event sequence data along with a relational network.…

Hawkes process is a class of simple point processes with self-exciting and clustering properties. Hawkes process has been widely applied in finance, neuroscience, social networks, criminology, seismology, and many other fields. In this…

Hawkes processes are a popular framework to model the occurrence of sequential events, i.e., occurrence dynamics, in several fields such as social diffusion. In real-world scenarios, the inter-arrival time among events is irregular.…

Physiological signal analysis often involves identifying events crucial to understanding biological dynamics. Traditional methods rely on handcrafted procedures or supervised learning, presenting challenges such as expert dependence, lack…

Social media conversations unfold based on complex interactions between users, topics and time. While recent models have been proposed to capture network strengths between users, users' topical preferences and temporal patterns between…