Related papers: Controlling Propagation of epidemics via mean-fiel…
In this paper, I study epidemic diffusion in a generalized spatial SEIRD model, where individuals are initially connected in a social or geographical network. As the virus spreads in the network, the structure of interactions between people…
The appearance of the coronavirus (COVID-19) in late 2019 has dominated the news in the last few months as it developed into a pandemic. In many mathematics and physics classrooms, instructors are using the time series of the number of…
Social distancing strategies have been adopted by governments to manage the COVID-19 pandemic, since the first outbreak began. However, further epidemic waves keep out the return of economic and social activities to their standard levels of…
The dramatic outbreak of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemics and its ongoing progression boosted the scientific community's interest in epidemic modeling and forecasting. The SIR (Susceptible-Infected-Removed) model is a…
A pandemic caused by a new coronavirus has spread worldwide, affecting Argentina. We implement an SEIR model to analyze the disease evolution in Buenos Aires and neighbouring cities. The model parameters are calibrated using the number of…
The rapid worldwide spread of the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) demonstrated the potential threat an infectious disease poses in a closely interconnected and interdependent world. Here we introduce a probabilistic model which…
This paper introduces a spatiotemporal SEIQR epidemic model governed by a system of reaction-diffusion partial differential equations that incorporates optimal control strategies. The model captures the transmission dynamics of an…
Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) which is caused by SARS-COV2 has become a pandemic. This disease is highly infectious and potentially fatal, causing a global public health concern. To contain the spread of COVID-19, governments are adopting…
We consider a multi-population epidemic model with one or more (almost) isolated communities and one mobile community. Each of the isolated communities has contact within itself and, in addition, contact with the outside world but only…
We propose a dynamical model for describing the spread of epidemics. This model is an extension of the SIQR (susceptible-infected-quarantined-recovered) and SIRP (susceptible-infected-recovered-pathogen) models used earlier to describe…
The surprisingly mercurial Covid-19 pandemic has highlighted the need to not only accelerate research on infectious disease, but to also study them using novel techniques and perspectives. A major contributor to the difficulty of containing…
Current efforts of modelling COVID-19 are often based on the standard compartmental models such as SEIR and their variations. As pre-symptomatic and asymptomatic cases can spread the disease between populations through travel, it is…
The outbreak of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) is an ongoing pandemic affecting over 200 countries and regions. Inference about the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 can provide important insights into the speed of disease spread and…
It has long been known that epidemics can travel along communication lines, such as roads. In the current COVID-19 epidemic, it has been observed that major roads have enhanced its propagation in Italy. We propose a new simple model of…
We present a new mathematical model to explicitly capture the effects that the three restriction measures: the lockdown date and duration, social distancing and masks, and, schools and border closing, have in controlling the spread of…
The aim of this paper consists in the application of a recent epidemiological model, namely SEIR with Social Distancing (SEIR--SD), extended here through the definition of a social distancing function varying over time, to assess the…
The outbreak of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has now spread throughout the globe infecting over 150 million people and causing the death of over 3.2 million people. Thus, there is an urgent need to study the dynamics of…
We consider the SEIRS epidemiology model with such features of the COVID-19 outbreak as: abundance of unidentified infected individuals, limited time of immunity and a possibility of vaccination. The control of the pandemic dynamics is…
Characterizing the spatial extent of epidemics at the outbreak stage is key to controlling the evolution of the disease. At the outbreak, the number of infected individuals is typically small, so that fluctuations around their average are…
In this work we analyze mathematically the consequences and effectiveness of strategies to control an epidemic in the framework of classical SEIR models with multiple parallel infectious stages. We define the mathematical concept of a…