Related papers: Logistic Regression for Massive Data with Rare Eve…

Data-driven risk analysis involves the inference of probability distributions from measured or simulated data. In the case of a highly reliable system, such as the electricity grid, the amount of relevant data is often exceedingly limited,…

Logistic regression is a widely used method in several fields. When applying logistic regression to imbalanced data, for which majority classes dominate over minority classes, all class labels are estimated as `majority class.' In this…

This paper describes a method for a model-based analysis of clinical safety data called multivariate Bayesian logistic regression (MBLR). Parallel logistic regression models are fit to a set of medically related issues, or response…

Machine learning for the parameterization of subgrid-scale processes in climate models has been widely researched and adopted in a few models. A key challenge in developing data-driven parameterization schemes is how to properly represent…

Linear mixed models (LMMs) are used as an important tool in the data analysis of repeated measures and longitudinal studies. The most common form of LMMs utilize a normal distribution to model the random effects. Such assumptions can often…

Consider a set of categorical variables $\mathcal{P}$ where at least one, denoted by $Y$, is binary. The log-linear model that describes the counts in the resulting contingency table implies a specific logistic regression model, with the…

Extreme events, such as market crashes, natural disasters, and pandemics, are rare but catastrophic, often triggering cascading failures across interconnected systems. Accurate prediction and early warning can help minimize losses and…

Data rebalancing techniques, including oversampling and undersampling, are a common approach to addressing the challenges of imbalanced data. To tackle unresolved problems related to both oversampling and undersampling, we propose a new…

Objective: Many low-severity crashes are not reported due to sampling criteria, introducing missing not at random (MNAR) bias. If not addressed, MNAR bias can lead to inaccurate safety analyses. This paper illustrates a statistical method…

RNA-Seq data characteristically exhibits large variances, which need to be appropriately accounted for in the model. We first explore the effects of this variability on the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) of the overdispersion parameter…

The efficient calculation of rare-event kinetics in complex dynamical systems, such as the rate and pathways of ligand dissociation from a protein, is a generally unsolved problem. Markov state models can systematically integrate ensembles…

To tackle massive data, subsampling is a practical approach to select the more informative data points. However, when responses are expensive to measure, developing efficient subsampling schemes is challenging, and an optimal sampling…

Rare events are events that are expected to occur infrequently, or more technically, those that have low probabilities (say, order of $10^{-3}$ or less) of occurring according to a probability model. In the context of uncertainty…

Time-to-event models are a popular tool to analyse data where the outcome variable is the time to the occurrence of a specific event of interest. Here we focus on the analysis of time-to-event outcomes that are either intrisically discrete…

Scarcity of labeled data, especially for rare events, hinders training effective machine learning models. This paper proposes SYNAPSE-G (Synthetic Augmentation for Positive Sampling via Expansion on Graphs), a novel pipeline leveraging…

One of the most common machine learning setups is logistic regression. In many classification models, including neural networks, the final prediction is obtained by applying a logistic link function to a linear score. In binary logistic…

We develop rare-event simulation methodology for the analysis of loss events in a many-server loss system under quality-driven regime, focusing on the steady-state loss probability (i.e. fraction of lost customers over arrivals) and the…

We develop a novel approach to tackle the common but challenging problem of conformal inference for missing data in machine learning, focusing on Missing at Random (MAR) data. We propose a new procedure Conformal prediction for Missing data…

Learning from a limited number of samples is challenging since the learned model can easily become overfitted based on the biased distribution formed by only a few training examples. In this paper, we calibrate the distribution of these…

In many application domains such as medicine, information retrieval, cybersecurity, social media, etc., datasets used for inducing classification models often have an unequal distribution of the instances of each class. This situation,…