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Learning semantic-rich representations from raw unlabeled time series data is critical for downstream tasks such as classification and forecasting. Contrastive learning has recently shown its promising representation learning capability in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-03-31 Qianwen Meng , Hangwei Qian , Yong Liu , Lizhen Cui , Yonghui Xu , Zhiqi Shen

In applications of dynamical systems, situations can arise where it is desired to predict the onset of synchronization as it can lead to characteristic and significant changes in the system performance and behaviors, for better or worse. In…

Adaptation and Self-Organizing Systems · Physics 2021-06-30 Huawei Fan , Ling-Wei Kong , Ying-Cheng Lai , Xingang Wang

We introduce a neural network conformal prediction method for time series that enhances adaptivity in non-stationary environments. Our approach acts as a neural controller designed to achieve desired target coverage, leveraging auxiliary…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-25 Ruipu Li , Alexander Rodríguez

Conformal prediction offers a practical framework for distribution-free uncertainty quantification, providing finite-sample coverage guarantees under relatively mild assumptions on data exchangeability. However, these assumptions cease to…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-06-25 Derck W. E. Prinzhorn , Thijmen Nijdam , Putri A. van der Linden , Alexander Timans

We consider the commonly encountered situation (e.g., in weather forecasting) where the goal is to predict the time evolution of a large, spatiotemporally chaotic dynamical system when we have access to both time series data of previous…

Forecasting financial time series is considered to be a difficult task due to the chaotic feature of the series. Statistical approaches have shown solid results in some specific problems such as predicting market direction and single-price…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2021-07-05 Angelo Garangau Menezes , Saulo Martiello Mastelini

Time series forecasting uses historical data to predict future trends, leveraging the relationships between past observations and available features. In this paper, we propose RAFT, a retrieval-augmented time series forecasting method to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-08 Sungwon Han , Seungeon Lee , Meeyoung Cha , Sercan O Arik , Jinsung Yoon

Air quality forecasting has been regarded as the key problem of air pollution early warning and control management. In this paper, we propose a novel deep learning model for air quality (mainly PM2.5) forecasting, which learns the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-11-26 Shengdong Du , Tianrui Li , Yan Yang , Shi-Jinn Horng

Multivariate time series forecasting is an important yet challenging problem in machine learning. Most existing approaches only forecast the series value of one future moment, ignoring the interactions between predictions of future moments…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-12-12 Jiezhu Cheng , Kaizhu Huang , Zibin Zheng

Probabilistic hierarchical time-series forecasting is an important variant of time-series forecasting, where the goal is to model and forecast multivariate time-series that have underlying hierarchical relations. Most methods focus on point…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-20 Harshavardhan Kamarthi , Lingkai Kong , Alexander Rodríguez , Chao Zhang , B. Aditya Prakash

Probabilistic hierarchical time-series forecasting is an important variant of time-series forecasting, where the goal is to model and forecast multivariate time-series that have underlying hierarchical relations. Most methods focus on point…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-20 Harshavardhan Kamarthi , Lingkai Kong , Alexander Rodríguez , Chao Zhang , B. Aditya Prakash

Systems are commonly monitored for health and security through collection and streaming of multivariate time series. Advances in time series forecasting due to adoption of multilayer recurrent neural network architectures make it possible…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-03-10 Oshri Barazani , David Tolpin

Given a sequence of sets, where each set contains an arbitrary number of elements, the problem of temporal sets prediction aims to predict the elements in the subsequent set. In practice, temporal sets prediction is much more complex than…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-07-09 Le Yu , Leilei Sun , Bowen Du , Chuanren Liu , Hui Xiong , Weifeng Lv

Predicting chaotic dynamical systems is critical in many scientific fields, such as weather forecasting, but challenging due to the characteristic sensitive dependence on initial conditions. Traditional modeling approaches require extensive…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-12 Christof Schötz , Alistair White , Maximilian Gelbrecht , Niklas Boers

Time-series forecasting is one of the most active research topics in artificial intelligence. Applications in real-world time series should consider two factors for achieving reliable predictions: modeling dynamic dependencies among…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-05-28 Gabriel Spadon , Shenda Hong , Bruno Brandoli , Stan Matwin , Jose F. Rodrigues-Jr , Jimeng Sun

The prediction of time series is a challenging task relevant in such diverse applications as analyzing financial data, forecasting flow dynamics or understanding biological processes. Especially chaotic time series that depend on a long…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-06 Johannes Viehweg , Dominik Walther , Patrick Mäder

Forecasts of various processes have always been a sophisticated problem for statistics and data science. Over the past decades the solution procedures were updated by deep learning and kernel methods. According to many specialists, these…

Computers and Society · Computer Science 2024-06-11 Igor Mackarov

Recent progress in neural forecasting accelerated improvements in the performance of large-scale forecasting systems. Yet, long-horizon forecasting remains a very difficult task. Two common challenges afflicting the task are the volatility…

The success of deep learning techniques over the last decades has opened up a new avenue of research for weather forecasting. Here, we take the novel approach of using a neural network to predict full probability density functions at each…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-01-05 Mariana Clare , Omar Jamil , Cyril Morcrette

Time series forecasting is a challenging problem particularly when a time series expresses multiple seasonality, nonlinear trend and varying variance. In this work, to forecast complex time series, we propose ensemble learning which is…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-03-03 Grzegorz Dudek