Related papers: A model for Dansgaard-Oeschger events and millenni…
The understanding of the fundamental properties of the climate system has long benefitted from the use of simple numerical models able to parsimoniously represent the essential ingredients of its processes. Here we introduce a new model for…
A system of stochastic differential equations is formulated describing the heat and salt content of a two-box ocean. Variability in the heat and salt content and in the thermohaline circulation between the boxes is driven by fast Gaussian…
This thesis assesses the influence of astronomical phenomena on the Earth's biosphere and climate. I examine in particular the relevance of both the path of the Sun through the Galaxy and the evolution of the Earth's orbital parameters in…
A system of five ordinary differential equations is studied which combines the Lorenz-84 model for the atmosphere and a box model for the ocean. The behaviour of this system is studied as a function of the coupling parameters. For most…
We propose to model physical effects at the sharp density interface between atmosphere and ocean with the help of diffuse interface approaches for multiphase flows with variable densities. We use the variable-density model proposed in…
Internal climate variability arises from the climate system's inherently chaotic dynamics. Quantifying it is essential for climate science, as it enables risk-based decision-making and differentiates between externally forced change and…
We investigate a coupled atmosphere-ocean model including the mechanical and thermodynamical interaction between the two fluids for the mid-latitudes. The formulation combines a multilayer quasi-geostrophic dynamical framework with…
A global hybrid coupled model is developed, with the aim of studying the effects of ocean-atmosphere feedbacks on the stability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. The model includes a global ocean general circulation model…
We provide a new solution to the long-standing problem of inferring causality from observations without modeling the unknown mechanisms. We show that the evolution of any dynamical system is related to a predictive asymmetry that quantifies…
The predictability of the atmosphere at short and long time scales, associated with the coupling to the ocean, is explored in a new version of the Modular Arbitrary-Order Ocean-Atmosphere Model (MAOOAM), based on a 2-layer quasi-geostrophic…
Climate models exhibit an approximately invariant surface warming pattern in typical end-of-century projections. This observation has been used extensively in climate impact assessments for fast calculations of local temperature anomalies,…
Understanding rare events in turbulence provides a basis for the science of extreme weather, for which the atmosphere is modeled by Navier-Stokes equations (NSEs). In solutions of NSEs for isotropic fluids, various quantities, such as fluid…
This article is concerned with the internal dynamics of a conceptual model proposed by Maasch and Saltzman [J. Geophys. Res., 95, D2 (1990) 1955-1963] to explain central features of the glacial cycles observed in the climate record of the…
The effect caused by the presence of a number of distinct time scales in a simple stochastic model for the Earth's atmosphere temperature fluctuations is studied. The model is described by a dissipative dynamics consisting of a set of…
Starting from a classical Budyko-Sellers-Ghil energy balance model for the average surface temperature of the Earth, a nonautonomous version is designed by allowing the solar irradiance and the cloud cover coefficients to vary with time in…
A set of idealized experiments are performed to analyze the competing effects of declining atmospheric CO2 concentrations, the opening of an ocean gateway, and varying orbital parameters. These forcing mechanisms, which influence the global…
In light of the rapid recent retreat of Arctic sea ice, the extreme weather events triggering the variability in Arctic ice cover has drawn increasing attention. A non-Gaussian $\alpha$-stable L\'evy process is thought to be an appropriate…
Strong positive feedback is considered a necessary condition to observe abrupt shifts of ecosystems. A few previous studies have shown that demographic noise -- arising from the probabilistic and discrete nature of birth and death processes…
Cenozoic temperature, sea level and CO2 co-variations provide insights into climate sensitivity to external forcings and sea level sensitivity to climate change. Climate sensitivity depends on the initial climate state, but potentially can…
Among the most relevant processes in the Earth system for human habitability are quasi-periodic, ocean-driven multi-year events whose dynamics are currently incompletely characterized by physical models, and hence poorly predictable. This…