Related papers: Identification of an Epidemiological Model to Simu…
The novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is known as the causative virus of outbreak pneumonia initially recognized in the mainland of China, late December 2019. COVID-19 reaches out to many countries in the world, and the number of daily…
The estimation of unknown parameters in simulations, also known as calibration, is crucial for practical management of epidemics and prediction of pandemic risk. A simple yet widely used approach is to estimate the parameters by minimizing…
The COVID-19 outbreak has stimulated the interest in the proposal of novel epidemiological models to predict the course of the epidemic so as to help planning effective control strategies. In particular, in order to properly interpret the…
The recent coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak has dramatically increased the public awareness and appreciation of the utility of dynamic models. At the same time, the dissemination of contradictory model predictions has highlighted…
The dramatic outbreak of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemics and its ongoing progression boosted the scientific community's interest in epidemic modeling and forecasting. The SIR (Susceptible-Infected-Removed) model is a…
Coronavirus COVID-19 spreads through the population mostly based on social contact. To gauge the potential for widespread contagion, to cope with associated uncertainty and to inform its mitigation, more accurate and robust modelling is…
This paper deals with the problem of estimating variables in nonlinear models for the spread of disease and its application to the COVID-19 epidemic. First unconstrained methods are revisited and they are shown to correspond to the…
Epidemiological models are best suitable to model an epidemic if the spread pattern is stationary. To deal with non-stationary patterns and multiple waves of an epidemic, we develop a hybrid model encompassing epidemic modeling, particle…
Calibration of a SIR (Susceptibles-Infected-Recovered) model with official international data for the COVID-19 pandemics provides a good example of the difficulties inherent the solution of inverse problems. Inverse modeling is set up in a…
For the description of a pandemic mathematical models could be interesting. Both for physicians and politicians as a base for decisions to treat the disease. The responsible estimation of parameters is a main issue of mathematical pandemic…
Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) models with inter-individual variation in susceptibility or exposure to infection were proposed early in the COVID-19 pandemic as a potential element of the mathematical/statistical toolset…
Objective: COVID-19 has spread worldwide and made a huge influence across the world. Modeling the infectious spread situation of COVID-19 is essential to understand the current condition and to formulate intervention measurements.…
One of the central tools to control the COVID-19 pandemics is the knowledge of its spreading dynamics. Here we develop a fractal model capable of describe this dynamics, in term of daily new cases, and provide quantitative criteria for some…
The paper formulates and solves the problem of identification of unknown parameters of mathematical models of the spread of COVID-19 coronavirus infection, based on SEIR type models, based on additional information about the number of…
Compartmental models are popular in the mathematics of epidemiology for their simplicity and wide range of applications. Although they are typically solved as initial value problems for a system of ordinary differential equations, the…
In this paper, based on the Akaike information criterion, root mean square error and robustness coefficient, a rational evaluation of various epidemic models/methods, including seven empirical functions, four statistical inference methods…
We present an early version of a Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered-Deceased (SEIRD) mathematical model based on partial differential equations coupled with a heterogeneous diffusion model. The model describes the spatio-temporal spread…
The current global health emergency triggered by the pandemic COVID-19 is one of the greatest challenges mankind face in this generation. Computational simulations have played an important role to predict the development of the current…
We propose a novel methodology for estimating the epidemiological parameters of a modified SIRD model (acronym of Susceptible, Infected, Recovered and Deceased individuals) and perform a short-term forecast of SARS-CoV-2 virus spread. We…
We provide an overview of the methods that can be used for prediction under uncertainty and data fitting of dynamical systems, and of the fundamental challenges that arise in this context. The focus is on SIR-like models, that are being…