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Modern autonomous systems with machine learning components often use uncertainty quantification to help produce assurances about system operation. However, there is a lack of consensus in the community on what uncertainty is and how to…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2026-01-27 Sampada Deglurkar , Haotian Shen , Anish Muthali , Marco Pavone , Dragos Margineantu , Peter Karkus , Boris Ivanovic , Claire J. Tomlin

Optimization equips engineers and scientists in a variety of fields with the ability to transcribe their problems into a generic formulation and receive optimal solutions with relative ease. Industries ranging from aerospace to robotics…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2022-12-05 Keivan Shariatmadar , Kaizheng Wang , Calvin R. Hubbard , Hans Hallez , David Moens

Robust Markov Decision Processes (RMDPs) generalize classical MDPs that consider uncertainties in transition probabilities by defining a set of possible transition functions. An objective is a set of runs (or infinite trajectories) of the…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-05-08 Ali Asadi , Krishnendu Chatterjee , Ehsan Kafshdar Goharshady , Mehrdad Karrabi , Ali Shafiee

In learning problems, the noise inherent to the task at hand hinders the possibility to infer without a certain degree of uncertainty. Quantifying this uncertainty, regardless of its wide use, assumes high relevance for security-sensitive…

In many situations across computational science and engineering, multiple computational models are available that describe a system of interest. These different models have varying evaluation costs and varying fidelities. Typically, a…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2018-06-29 Benjamin Peherstorfer , Karen Willcox , Max Gunzburger

Effectively measuring and modeling the reliability of a trained model is essential to the real-world deployment of monocular depth estimation (MDE) models. However, the intrinsic ill-posedness and ordinal-sensitive nature of MDE pose major…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2023-07-20 Mochu Xiang , Jing Zhang , Nick Barnes , Yuchao Dai

Quantifying uncertainties for machine learning (ML) models is a foundational challenge in modern data analysis. This challenge is compounded by at least two key aspects of the field: (a) inconsistent terminology surrounding uncertainty and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-04 Shubhendu Trivedi , Brian D. Nord

Feedback optimization optimizes the steady state of a dynamical system by implementing optimization iterations in closed loop with the plant. It relies on online measurements and limited model information, namely, the input-output…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-09-09 Winnie Chan , Zhiyu He , Keith Moffat , Saverio Bolognani , Michael Muehlebach , Florian Dörfler

Machine learning (ML) systems are increasingly deployed in high-stakes domains where reliability is paramount. This thesis investigates how uncertainty estimation can enhance the safety and trustworthiness of ML, focusing on selective…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-09 Stephan Rabanser

Distributionally robust control is a well-studied framework for optimal decision making under uncertainty, with the objective of minimizing an expected cost function over control actions, assuming the most adverse probability distribution…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-08-12 Alexandros E. Tzikas , Lukas Fiechtner , Arec Jamgochian , Mykel J. Kochenderfer

As large language models continue to be widely developed, robust uncertainty quantification techniques will become crucial for their safe deployment in high-stakes scenarios. In this work, we explore how conformal prediction can be used to…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2023-07-11 Bhawesh Kumar , Charlie Lu , Gauri Gupta , Anil Palepu , David Bellamy , Ramesh Raskar , Andrew Beam

We investigate a data-driven approach to constructing uncertainty sets for robust optimization problems, where the uncertain problem parameters are modeled as random variables whose joint probability distribution is not known. Relying only…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2020-09-22 Polina Alexeenko , Eilyan Bitar

Recoverable robust optimization is a multi-stage approach, where it is possible to adjust a first-stage solution after the uncertain cost scenario is revealed. We analyze this approach for a class of selection problems. The aim is to choose…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2021-02-22 Marc Goerigk , Stefan Lendl , Lasse Wulf

The objective-based forecasting considers the asymmetric and non-linear impacts of forecasting errors on decision objectives, thus improving the effectiveness of its downstream decision-making process. However, existing objective-based…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2023-03-22 Haipeng Zhang , Ran Li , Yan Chen , Zhongda Chu , Mingyang Sun , Fei Teng

In the current work we introduce a novel estimation of distribution algorithm to tackle a hard combinatorial optimization problem, namely the single-machine scheduling problem, with uncertain delivery times. The majority of the existing…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2013-12-05 Boris Mitavskiy , Jun He

This article aims to introduce the paradigm of distributional robustness from the field of convex optimization to tackle optimal design problems under uncertainty. We consider realistic situations where the physical model, and thereby the…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-07-30 Charles Dapogny , Julien Prando , Boris Thibert

This paper is concerned with objective value performance of the scenario approach for robust convex optimization. A novel method is proposed to derive probabilistic bounds for the objective value from scenario programs with a finite number…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2022-04-20 Zheming Wang , Raphaël M. Jungers

Molecular simulations and biophysical experiments can be used to provide independent and complementary insights into the molecular origin of biological processes. A particularly useful strategy is to use molecular simulations as a modelling…

Chemical Physics · Physics 2019-12-10 Simone Orioli , Andreas Haahr Larsen , Sandro Bottaro , Kresten Lindorff-Larsen

Combining efficient and safe control for safety-critical systems is challenging. Robust methods may be overly conservative, whereas probabilistic controllers require a trade-off between efficiency and safety. In this work, we propose a…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2022-09-16 Tim Brüdigam , Robert Jacumet , Dirk Wollherr , Marion Leibold

In this paper we survey the primary research, both theoretical and applied, in the area of Robust Optimization (RO). Our focus is on the computational attractiveness of RO approaches, as well as the modeling power and broad applicability of…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2010-10-27 Dimitris Bertsimas , David B. Brown , Constantine Caramanis
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