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We establish spectral theorems for random walks on mapping class groups of connected, closed, oriented, hyperbolic surfaces, and on $\text{Out}(F_N)$. In both cases, we relate the asymptotics of the stretching factor of the…

Group Theory · Mathematics 2020-07-20 François Dahmani , Camille Horbez

This work introduces the minimax Laplace transform method, a modification of the cumulant-based matrix Laplace transform method developed in "User-friendly tail bounds for sums of random matrices" (arXiv:1004.4389v6) that yields both upper…

Probability · Mathematics 2011-07-22 Alex Gittens , Joel A. Tropp

This article presents a new proof of the rate of convergence to the normal distribution of sums of independent, identically distributed random variables in chi-square distance, which was also recently studied in \cite{BobkovRenyi}. Our…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-11-15 Claire Delplancke , Laurent Miclo

We study a new connection between a technical measure called $\mu$-conductance that arises in the study of Markov chains for sampling convex bodies and the network community profile that characterizes size-resolved properties of clusters…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2023-03-28 Yufan Huang , C. Seshadhri , David F. Gleich

We prove limit theorems for the number of fixed points, descents, and inversions of iterated random-to-top shuffles in two asymptotic regimes. Our proofs are analytic, and they utilize new combinatorial decompositions that represent each…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-04-10 Alexander Clay

This paper studies quantitative deviation bounds for statistical ensembles evolving under the one-parameter flow of a nearly integrable Hamiltonian system. Combining Nekhoroshev-type stability estimates with phase-mixing arguments, we…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2026-02-23 Xinyu Liu , Yong Li

We give a local central limit theorem for simple random walks on Z^d, including Gaussian error estimates. The detailed proof combines standard large deviation techniques with Cramer-Edgeworth expansions for lattice distributions.

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Christine Ritzmann

We consider the use of randomised forward models and log-likelihoods within the Bayesian approach to inverse problems. Such random approximations to the exact forward model or log-likelihood arise naturally when a computationally expensive…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-10-29 H. C. Lie , T. J. Sullivan , A. L. Teckentrup

We introduce the Space-Time Markov Chain Approximation (STMCA) for a general diffusion process on a finite metric graph $\Gamma$. The STMCA is a doubly asymmetric (in both time and space) random walk defined on a subdivisions of $\Gamma$,…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-08-01 Alexis Anagnostakis

Let $G$ be a finitely generated group equipped with a finite symmetric generating set and the associated word length function $|\cdot |$. We study the behavior of the probability of return for random walks driven by symmetric measures $\mu$…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-01-26 Laurent Saloff-Coste , Tianyi Zheng

We consider nearest neighbour spatial random permutations on $\mathbb{Z}^d$. In this case, the energy of the system is proportional the sum of all cycle lengths, and the system can be interpreted as an ensemble of edge-weighted, mutually…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-03-29 Volker Betz , Lorenzo Taggi

Mixture models are commonly used in applications with heterogeneity and overdispersion in the population, as they allow the identification of subpopulations. In the Bayesian framework, this entails the specification of suitable prior…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-06-21 Andrea Cremaschi , Timothy M. Wertz , Maria De Iorio

We consider the Random Walk Metropolis algorithm on $\mathbb{R}^n$ with Gaussian proposals, and when the target probability measure is the $n$-fold product of a one-dimensional law. It is well known (see Roberts et al. (Ann. Appl. Probab. 7…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-10-22 Benjamin Jourdain , Tony Lelièvre , Błażej Miasojedow

We study existence of percolation in the hierarchical group of order $N$, which is an ultrametric space, and transience and recurrence of random walks on the percolation clusters. The connection probability on the hierarchical group for two…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-02-09 D. A. Dawson , L. G. Gorostiza

A common tool in the practice of Markov Chain Monte Carlo is to use approximating transition kernels to speed up computation when the desired kernel is slow to evaluate or intractable. A limited set of quantitative tools exist to assess the…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-01-14 Jeffrey Negrea , Jeffrey S. Rosenthal

Markov chain Monte Carlo methods such as Gibbs sampling and simple forms of the Metropolis algorithm typically move about the distribution being sampled via a random walk. For the complex, high-dimensional distributions commonly encountered…

bayes-an · Physics 2008-02-03 R. M. Neal

Let $M_n$ be a simple triangulation of the sphere $S^2$, drawn uniformly at random from all such triangulations with n vertices. Endow $M_n$ with the uniform probability measure on its vertices. After rescaling graph distance on $V(M_n)$ by…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-01-20 Louigi Addario Berry , Marie Albenque

We study the length of short cycles on uniformly random metric maps (also known as ribbon graphs) of large genus using a Teichm\"uller theory approach. We establish that, as the genus tends to infinity, the length spectrum converges to a…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-04-16 Simon Barazer , Alessandro Giacchetto , Mingkun Liu

We consider the continuous-time random walk of a particle in a two-dimensional self-affine quenched random potential of Hurst exponent $H>0$. The corresponding master equation is studied via the strong disorder renormalization procedure…

Disordered Systems and Neural Networks · Physics 2010-02-01 Cecile Monthus , Thomas Garel

We consider a transitive action of a finitely generated group $G$ and the Schreier graph $\Gamma$ defined by this action for some fixed generating set. For a probability measure $\mu$ on $G$ with a finite first moment we show that if the…

Group Theory · Mathematics 2021-05-18 Bogdan Stankov