Related papers: What Can We Learn from the Time Evolution of COVID…
We find UK 'local lockdowns' of cities and small regions, focused on limiting how many people a household can interact with and in what settings, are effective in turning the tide on rising positive COVID-19 cases. Yet, by focusing on…
The novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is a highly contagious respiratory disease that was first detected in Wuhan, China in December 2019, and has since spread around the globe, claiming more than 69,000 lives by the time this protocol…
The outbreak of COVID-19 in Europe occurred in early 2020. During the year, several waves of infection developed with different timings across the European countries. The onset of the largest wave of infection occurred in August-September.…
We develop a multiple-events model and exploit within and between country variation in the timing, type and level of intensity of various public policies to study their dynamic effects on the daily incidence of COVID-19 and on population…
Italy has been one of the first countries timewise strongly impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic. The adoption of social distancing and heavy lockdown measures is posing a heavy burden on the population and the economy. The timing of the…
During the COVID pandemic, periods of exponential growth of the disease have been mitigated by containment measures that in different occasions have resulted in a power-law growth of the number of cases. The first observation of such…
During the global spread of COVID-19, Japan has been among the top countries to maintain a relatively low number of infections, despite implementing limited institutional interventions. Using a Tokyo Metropolitan dataset, this study…
Over the past two decades there has been a number of global outbreaks of viral diseases. This has accelerated the efforts to model and forecast the disease spreading, in order to find ways to confine the spreading regionally and between…
Phenomenological and deterministic models are often used for the estimation of transmission parameters in an epidemic and for the prediction of its growth trajectory. Such analyses are usually based on single peak outbreak dynamics. In…
This paper presents the assessment of time-dependent national-level restrictions and control actions and their effects in fighting the COVID-19 pandemic. By analysing the transmission dynamics during the first wave of COVID-19 in the…
Background. The paper concerns the SARS-CoV2 (COVID-19) pandemic that, starting from the end of February 2020, began spreading along the Italian peninsula, by first attacking small communities in north regions, and then extending to the…
We introduce a new probabilistic model to estimate the real spread of the novel SARS-CoV-2 virus along regions or countries. Our model simulates the behavior of each individual in a population according to a probabilistic model through an…
We investigate the effect of school closure and subsequent reopening on the transmission of COVID-19, by considering Denmark, Norway, Sweden, and German states as case studies. By comparing the growth rates in daily hospitalisations or…
Vaccination against the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a key measure to reduce the probability of getting infected with the disease. Accordingly, this might significantly change an individuals perception and decision-making in daily…
Attempts to control the epidemic spread of COVID19 in the different countries often involve imposing restrictions to the mobility of citizens. Recent examples demonstrate that the effectiveness of these policies strongly depends on the…
This paper introduces new methods to analyze the changing progression of COVID-19 cases to deaths in different waves of the pandemic. First, an algorithmic approach partitions each country or state's COVID-19 time series into a first wave…
The spread of the coronavirus (COVID-19), starting in late 2019, has determined in Italy several interventions aimed to prevent saturation of the health system. We have examined the effects of such measures by proposing a mean-field model…
We argue that frequent sampling of the fraction of infected people (either by random testing or by analysis of sewage water), is central to managing the COVID-19 pandemic because it both measures in real time the key variable controlled by…
Attempts to curb the spread of coronavirus by introducing strict quarantine measures apparently have different effect in different countries: while the number of new cases has reportedly decreased in China and South Korea, it still exhibit…
The novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2, commonly referred to as COVID-19, triggered the global pandemic. Although the nature of the international spread of infection is an important issue, extracting diffusion networks from observations is…