Related papers: A model-free, data-based forecast for sunspot cycl…
The relative number of sunspots represents the longest evidence describing the level of solar activity. As such, its use goes beyond solar physics, e.g. towards climate research. The construction of a single representative series is a…
Here we analyze solar activity by focusing on time variations of the number of sunspot groups (SGs) as a function of their modified Zurich class. We analyzed data for solar cycles 2023 by using Rome (cycles 2021) and Learmonth Solar…
Over the past century, the Sun's activity -- which exhibits significant variations -- went through a phase known as the Modern Maximum. Notably, the strongest sunspot cycle on record during this period, and indeed since direct sunspot…
Magnetic clouds (MCs) are transient magnetic structures giving the strongest southward magnetic field (Bz south) in the solar wind. The sheath regions of MCs may also carry southward magnetic field. Southward magnetic field is responsible…
The large-scale convection in the Sun known as supergranulation is manifested as a network structure on the solar surface. The network cells have an average lifetime of 24 hr, a size of about 30 Mm, and a lane width of about 6 Mm. We have…
This study explores the behavior of machine learning-based flare forecasting models deployed in a simulated operational environment. Using Georgia State University's Space Weather Analytics for Solar Flares benchmark dataset (Angryk et al.…
Various methods (or recipes) have been proposed to predict future solar activity levels - with mixed success. Among these, some precursor methods based upon quantities determined around or a few years before solar minimum have provided…
Solar flare forecasting research using machine learning (ML) has focused on high resolution magnetogram data from the SDO/HMI era covering Solar Cycle 24 and the start of Solar Cycle 25, with some efforts looking back to SOHO/MDI for data…
Although systematic measurements of the solar polar magnetic field exist only from mid 1970s, other proxies can be used to infer the polar field at earlier times. The observational data indicate a strong correlation between the polar field…
We describe a new tool developed for solar flare forecasting on the base of some sunspot group properties. Assuming that the flare frequency follows the Poisson statistics, this tool uses a database containing the morphological…
One of the most striking aspects of the 11-year sunspot cycle is that there have been times in the past when some cycles went missing, a most well-known example of this being the Maunder minimum during 1645-1715. Analyses of cosmogenic…
The Sun shows a global magnetic field cycle traditionally best visible in the photosphere as a changing sunspot cycle featuring roughly an 11 year period. In addition we know that our host star also harbours small-scale magnetic fields…
Most solar flares originate in sunspot groups, where magnetic field changes lead to energy build-up and release. However, few flare-forecasting methods use information of sunspot-group evolution, instead focusing on static point-in-time…
Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) events and their major subclass, Solar Proton Events (SPEs), can have unfavorable consequences on numerous aspects of life and technology, making them one of the most harmful effects of solar activity.…
The automated detection of solar features is a technique which is relatively underused but if we are to keep up with the flow of data from spacecraft such as the recently launched Solar Dynamics Observatory, then such techniques will be…
We attempt to forecast the Sun's sunspot butterfly diagram in both space (i.e. in latitude) and time, instead of the usual one-dimensional time series forecasts prevalent in the scientific literature. We use a prediction method based on the…
Context. Solar activity cycles vary in amplitude and duration. The variations can be at least partly explained by fluctuations in dynamo parameters. Aims. We want to restrict uncertainty in fluctuating dynamo parameters and find out which…
Sunspot numbers provide the longest continuous record of solar activity and remain a key index for heliophysical research and space-weather applications. Standard sunspot determination relies on visual inspection and algorithmic…
The space missions MOST, COROT and Kepler are going to provide us with high-precision optical photometry of solar-like stars with time series extending from tens of days to several years. They can be modelled to obtain information on…
This deep, extended solar minimum and the slow start to Cycle 24 strongly suggest that Cycle 24 will be a small cycle. A wide array of solar cycle prediction techniques have been applied to predicting the amplitude of Cycle 24 with widely…