Related papers: A Bayesian - Deep Learning model for estimating Co…

We propose a high dimensional Bayesian inference framework for learning heterogeneous dynamics of a COVID-19 model, with a specific application to the dynamics and severity of COVID-19 inside and outside long-term care (LTC) facilities. We…

Mutating variants of COVID-19 have been reported across many US states since 2021. In the fight against COVID-19, it has become imperative to study the heterogeneity in the time-varying transmission rates for each variant in the presence of…

Epidemiological models contain a set of parameters that must be adjusted based on available observations. Once a model has been calibrated, it can be used as a forecasting tool to make predictions and to evaluate contingency plans. It is…

With the prevailing efforts to combat the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, there are still uncertainties that are yet to be discovered about its spread, future impact, and resurgence. In this paper, we present a three-stage…

The acute phase of the Covid-19 pandemic has made apparent the need for decision support based upon accurate epidemic modeling. This process is substantially hampered by under-reporting of cases and related data incompleteness issues. In…

We provide a predictive analysis of the spread of COVID-19, also known as SARS-CoV-2, using the dataset made publicly available online by the Johns Hopkins University. Our main objective is to provide predictions of the number of infected…

The COVID-19 pandemic has been characterised by multiple waves of transmission driven by interventions and emerging variants, challenging epidemic models that assume gradually evolving transmission dynamics. We propose a class of…

The Coronavirus Disease 2019 or the COVID-19 pandemic has swept almost all parts of the world since the first case was found in Wuhan, China, in December 2019. With the increasing number of COVID-19 cases in the world, SARS-CoV-2 has…

With the ever increasing demand for screening millions of prospective "novel coronavirus" or COVID-19 cases, and due to the emergence of high false negatives in the commonly used PCR tests, the necessity for probing an alternative simple…

We propose a general Bayesian approach to modeling epidemics such as COVID-19. The approach grew out of specific analyses conducted during the pandemic, in particular an analysis concerning the effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions…

The evolution of the COVID-19 epidemic has been accompanied by accumulating evidence on the underlying epidemiological parameters. Hence there is potential for models providing mid-term forecasts of the epidemic trajectory using such…

In this paper we model the spreading of the SARS-CoV-2 in Mexico by introducing a new stochastic approximation constructed from first principles, structured on the basis of a Latent-Infectious- (Recovered or Deceased) (LI(RD)) compartmental…

In an effort to provide regional decision support for the public healthcare, we design a data-driven compartment-based model of COVID-19 in Sweden. From national hospital statistics we derive parameter priors, and we develop linear…

The long duration of the COVID-19 pandemic allowed for multiple bursts in the infection and death rates, the so-called epidemic waves. This complex behavior is no longer tractable by simple compartmental model and requires more…

COVID-19 has led to excess deaths around the world, however it remains unclear how the mortality of other causes of death has changed during the pandemic. Aiming at understanding the wider impact of COVID-19 on other death causes, we study…

The main goal of this work is to estimate the actual number of cases of Covid-19 in Spain in the period 01-31-2020 / 06-01-2020 by Autonomous Communities. Based on these estimates, this work allows us to accurately re-estimate the lethality…

A multiple objective space-time forecasting approach is presented involving cyclical curve log-regression, and multivariate time series spatial residual correlation analysis. Specifically, the mean quadratic loss function is minimized in…

We consider the problem of Bayesian parameter estimation for deep neural networks, which is important in problem settings where we may have little data, and/ or where we need accurate posterior predictive densities, e.g., for applications…

The evolution of epidemiological parameters, such as instantaneous reproduction number Rt, is important for understanding the transmission dynamics of infectious diseases. Current estimates of time-varying epidemiological parameters often…

Analysing and understanding the transmission and evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic is mandatory to be able to design the best social and medical policies, foresee their outcomes and deal with all the subsequent socio-economic effects. We…