Stochastic epidemiological model: Modeling the SARS-CoV-2 spreading in Mexico
Abstract
In this paper we model the spreading of the SARS-CoV-2 in Mexico by introducing a new stochastic approximation constructed from first principles, structured on the basis of a Latent-Infectious- (Recovered or Deceased) (LI(RD)) compartmental approximation, where the number of new infected individuals caused by a single infectious individual per unit time (a day), is a random variable of a Poisson distribution and whose parameter is modulated through a weight-like time-dependent function. The weight function serves to introduce a time dependence to the average number of new infections and as we will show, this information can be extracted from empirical data, giving to the model self-consistency and provides a tool to study information about periodic patterns encoded in the epidemiological dynamics
Cite
@article{arxiv.2201.02703,
title = {Stochastic epidemiological model: Modeling the SARS-CoV-2 spreading in Mexico},
author = {Pablo Carlos López Vázquez and Gilberto Sánchez González and Jorge Martínez Ortega and Renato Salomón Arroyo Duarte},
journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2201.02703},
year = {2023}
}
Comments
14 pages, 7 figures