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Market efficiency at least requires the absence of weak arbitrage opportunities, but this is not sufficient to establish a situation where the market is sensitive, i.e., where it "fully reflects" or "rapidly adjusts to" some information…

General Finance · Quantitative Finance 2026-02-25 Gabriel Frahm

As foundation models are increasingly deployed as interacting agents in multi-agent systems, their collective behavior raises new challenges for trustworthiness, transparency, and accountability. Traditional coordination mechanisms, such as…

Multiagent Systems · Computer Science 2026-02-24 Brendan Gho , Suman Muppavarapu , Afnan Shaik , Tyson Tsay , Atharva Mohan , James Begin , Kevin Zhu , Archana Vaidheeswaran , Vasu Sharma

This paper studies matching markets in the presence of middlemen. In our framework, a buyer-seller pair may either trade directly or use the services of a middleman; and a middleman may serve multiple buyer-seller pairs. Direct trade…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2022-01-25 Ata Atay , Eric Bahel , Tamás Solymosi

I prove that competitive market outcomes require computational intractability. If P = NP, firms can efficiently solve the collusion detection problem, identifying deviations from cooperative agreements in complex, noisy markets and thereby…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2026-02-25 Philip Z. Maymin

Empirical evidence suggests that even the most competitive markets are not strictly efficient. Price histories can be used to predict near future returns with a probability better than random chance. Many markets can be considered as {\it…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2009-10-31 Yi-Cheng Zhang

Whenever customers' choices (e.g. to buy or not a given good) depend on others choices (cases coined 'positive externalities' or 'bandwagon effect' in the economic literature), the demand may be multiply valued: for a same posted price,…

General Finance · Quantitative Finance 2015-03-20 Mirta B. Gordon , Jean-Pierre Nadal , Denis Phan , Viktoriya Semeshenko

We study a cheap-talk game where two experts first choose what information to acquire and then offer advice to a decision-maker whose actions affect the welfare of all. The experts cannot commit to reporting strategies. Yet, we show that…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2021-04-08 Alp Atakan , Mehmet Ekmekci , Ludovic Renou

Many countries have adopted negative interest rate policies with tiering remuneration, which allows for exemption from negative rates. This practice has led to higher interbank trading volumes, with market rates ranging between zero and the…

General Economics · Economics 2026-01-21 Toshifumi Nakamura

In this paper, we present a multi-period trading model in the style of Kyle (1985)'s inside trading model, by assuming that there are at least two insiders in the market with long-lived private information, under the requirement that each…

Trading and Market Microstructure · Quantitative Finance 2011-03-07 Fuzhou Gong , Hong Liu

When collaborating with multiple parties, communicating relevant information is of utmost importance to efficiently completing the tasks at hand. Under active inference, communication can be cast as sharing beliefs between free-energy…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-07-03 Ozan Catal , Toon Van de Maele , Riddhi J. Pitliya , Mahault Albarracin , Candice Pattisapu , Tim Verbelen

Multi-strategy hedge funds face a fundamental organizational choice: should analysts generating trading strategies communicate, and if so, how? We investigate this using 5-agent LLM-based trading systems across 450 experiments spanning 21…

Multiagent Systems · Computer Science 2025-11-18 Jerick Shi , Burton Hollifield

The main approach to evaluating communication is by assessing how well it facilitates coordination. If two or more individuals can coordinate through communication, it is generally assumed that they understand one another. We investigate…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-09-30 Nikolaos Kondylidis , Anil Yaman , Frank van Harmelen , Erman Acar , Annette ten Teije

Although both data availability and the demand for accurate forecasts are increasing, collaboration between stakeholders is often constrained by data ownership and competitive interests. In contrast to recent proposals within cooperative…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-14 Michael Vitali , Pierre Pinson

We propose a simple mechanism to facilitate the buying and selling of useful, bluntly honest information. The for-profit, arm's length knowledge exchange this mechanism enables may dramatically increase the pace of scientific progress.

Economics · Quantitative Finance 2016-02-22 Bruce Knuteson

We initiate the study of incentive-compatible forecasting competitions in which multiple forecasters make predictions about one or more events and compete for a single prize. We have two objectives: (1) to incentivize forecasters to report…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2021-09-09 Jens Witkowski , Rupert Freeman , Jennifer Wortman Vaughan , David M. Pennock , Andreas Krause

We study finite-state communication games in which the sender's preference is perturbed by random private idiosyncrasies. Persuasion is generically impossible within the class of statistically independent sender/receiver preferences --…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2024-03-22 Alistair Barton

This paper studies the role of hard information in contractual and market settings in which the receiver can flexibly adjust allocations and transfers in response to the sender's disclosure. These settings include monopoly pricing,…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2026-01-09 S. Nageeb Ali , Andreas Kleiner , Kun Zhang

While the classic Vickrey-Clarke-Groves mechanism ensures incentive compatibility for a static one-shot game, it does not appear to be feasible to construct a dominant truth-telling mechanism for agents that are stochastic dynamic systems.…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2024-12-20 Ke Ma , P. R. Kumar

Motivated by kidney exchange, we study the following mechanism-design problem: On a directed graph (of transplant compatibilities among patient-donor pairs), the mechanism must select a simple path (a chain of transplantations) starting at…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2021-06-23 Avrim Blum , Paul Gölz

We consider two-sided matching markets, and study the incentives of agents to circumvent a centralized clearing house by signing binding contracts with one another. It is well-known that if the clearing house implements a stable match and…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2015-04-14 Nick Arnosti , Nicole Immorlica , Brendan Lucier