English

Markets are competitive if and only if P != NP

Computer Science and Game Theory 2026-02-25 v1 Computational Complexity Theoretical Economics Computational Finance

Abstract

I prove that competitive market outcomes require computational intractability. If P = NP, firms can efficiently solve the collusion detection problem, identifying deviations from cooperative agreements in complex, noisy markets and thereby making collusion sustainable as an equilibrium. If P != NP, the collusion detection problem is computationally infeasible for markets satisfying a natural instance-hardness condition on their demand structure, rendering punishment threats non-credible and collusion unstable. Combined with Maymin (2011), who proved that market efficiency requires P = NP, this yields a fundamental impossibility: markets can be informationally efficient or competitive, but not both. Artificial intelligence, by expanding firms' computational capabilities, is pushing markets from the competitive regime toward the collusive regime, explaining the empirical emergence of algorithmic collusion without explicit coordination.

Keywords

Cite

@article{arxiv.2602.20415,
  title  = {Markets are competitive if and only if P != NP},
  author = {Philip Z. Maymin},
  journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2602.20415},
  year   = {2026}
}

Comments

31 pages, 1 figure

R2 v1 2026-07-01T10:48:57.504Z