Related papers: Forecasting Covid-19 dynamics in Brazil: a data dr…
We have proposed a new form of growth rate for population ecology. Generally, the growth rate is dependent on the size of the population at that particular epoch. We have introduced an alternative time-dependent form of growth rate. This…
The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has become a public health emergency of international concern affecting more than 200 countries and territories worldwide. As of September 30, 2020, it has caused a pandemic outbreak with more than 33…
This work presents a simple and realistic approach to handle the available data of COVID-19 patients in India and to forecast the scenario. The model proposed is based on the available facts like the onset of lockdown (as announced by the…
Objective: To estimate the number of deaths in Peru due to COVID-19. Design: With a priori information obtained from the daily number of deaths due to CODIV-19 in China and data from the Peruvian authorities, we constructed a predictive…
We investigate, through a data-driven contact tracing model, the transmission of COVID-19 inside buses during distinct phases of the pandemic in a large Brazilian city. From this microscopic approach, we recover the networks of close…
Since the first outbreak of the COVID-19 epidemic at the end of 2019, data has been made available on the number of infections, deaths and recoveries for all countries of the World, and that data can be used for statistical analysis. The…
The COVID-19 pandemic has brought forth the importance of epidemic forecasting for decision makers in multiple domains, ranging from public health to the economy as a whole. While forecasting epidemic progression is frequently…
Accurate forecasts for COVID-19 are necessary for better preparedness and resource management. Specifically, deciding the response over months or several months requires accurate long-term forecasts which is particularly challenging as the…
A finite mixture model is used to learn trends from the currently available data on coronavirus (COVID-19). Data on the number of confirmed COVID-19 related cases and deaths for European countries and the United States (US) are explored. A…
The outbreak of Covid-19 led the world to an unprecedent health and economical crisis. In an attempt to responde to this emergency researchers worldwide are intensively studying the Covid-19 pandemic dynamics. In this work, a SIRSi…
Background. After a year and half and over 4 million deaths, the COVID-19 pandemic continues to be widespread, and its related topics continue to dominate the global media. Although COVID-19 diagnoses have been well monitored, neither the…
In this work, using a detailed dataset furnished by National Health Authorities concerning the Province of Pavia (Lombardy, Italy), we propose to determine the essential features of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic in term of contact dynamics.…
In this study, we construct a series of evolving epidemic networks by measuring the correlations of daily COVID-19 cases time series among 3,105 counties in the United States. Remarkably, through quantitative analysis of the spatial…
We present an empirical algorithm to forecast the evolution of the number of COVID-19 symptomatic patients in the early stages of the pandemic spread and after strict social distancing interventions. The algorithm is based on a low…
Background: To assist policy makers in taking adequate decisions to stop the spread of COVID-19 pandemic, accurate forecasting of the disease propagation is of paramount importance. Materials and Methods: This paper presents a deep learning…
Since the first recording of what we now call Covid-19 infection in Wuhan, Hubei province, China on Dec 31, 2019, the disease has spread worldwide and met with a wide variety of social distancing and quarantine policies. The effectiveness…
We report a statistical analysis of some highly infected countries by the novel coronavirus (COVID-19). The cumulative infected data were fitted with various growth models (e.g. Logistic equation, Weibull equation and Hill equation) and…
COVID 19 is an acute disease that started spreading throughout the world, beginning in December 2019. It has spread worldwide and has affected more than 7 million people, and 200 thousand people have died due to this infection as of Oct…
In this policy paper, we implement the epidemiological SIR to estimate the basic reproduction number $\mathcal{R}_0$ at national and state level. We also developed the statistical machine learning model to predict the cases ahead of time.…
The aim of the paper is to describe two models of Covid-19 infection dynamics. For this purpose a special class of branching processes with two types of individuals is considered. These models are intended to use only the observed daily…