Related papers: Forecasting Covid-19 dynamics in Brazil: a data dr…
This paper develops an individual-based stochastic network SIR model for the empirical analysis of the Covid-19 pandemic. It derives moment conditions for the number of infected and active cases for single as well as multigroup epidemic…
An epidemiological model is developed for the spread of COVID-19 in South Africa. A variant of the classical compartmental SEIR model, called the SEIQRDP model, is used. As South Africa is still in the early phases of the global COVID-19…
COVID-19--a viral infectious disease--has quickly emerged as a global pandemic infecting millions of people with a significant number of deaths across the globe. The symptoms of this disease vary widely. Depending on the symptoms an…
During the early months of the current COVID-19 pandemic, social-distancing measures effectively slowed disease transmission in many countries in Europe and Asia, but the same benefits have not been observed in some developing countries…
The COVID-19 pandemic has plagued the world for months. The U.S. has taken measures to counter it. On a daily basis, newly confirmed cases have been reported. In the early days, these numbers showed an increasing trend. Recently, the…
In this paper, we investigate the ongoing dynamics of COVID-19 in India after its emergence in Wuhan, China in December 2019. We discuss the effect of nationwide lockdown implemented in India on March 25, 2020 to prevent the spread of…
COVID-19 pandemic is severely impacting the lives of billions across the globe. Even after taking massive protective measures like nation-wide lockdowns, discontinuation of international flight services, rigorous testing etc., the infection…
The phenomenological mathematical model of COVID-19 spreading is proposed for large countries with geographical differentiation of population density. According to the model COVID-19 spreading takes the form of several spatio-temporal waves…
The last leg of the year 2019 gave rise to a virus named COVID-19 (Corona Virus Disease 2019). Since the beginning of this infection in India, the government implemented several policies and restrictions to curtail its spread among the…
Coronavirus outbreak is one of the most challenging pandemics for the entire human population of the planet Earth. Techniques such as the isolation of infected persons and maintaining social distancing are the only preventive measures…
Understanding the dynamics of the COVID-19 pandemic is crucial for improved control and social distancing strategies. To that effect, we have employed the susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered model, refined by contact tracing and…
A mathematical model for the COVID-19 pandemic spread, which integrates age-structured Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered-Deceased dynamics with real mobile phone data accounting for the population mobility, is presented. The dynamical…
We discuss the relationships between the outcome of the COVID-19 pandemic in Brazil at the municipal level and different health, social, demographic, and economic indices. We obtain significant correlations between the data gathered for…
The interpretation of sampling data plays a crucial role in policy response to the spread of a disease during an epidemic, such as the COVID-19 epidemic of 2020. However, this is a non-trivial endeavor due to the complexity of real world…
In this article, we investigate the historical series of the total number of deaths per month in Brazil since 2015 using time series analysis techniques, in order to assess whether the COVID-19 pandemic caused any change in the series'…
We recently described a dynamic causal model of a COVID-19 outbreak within a single region. Here, we combine several of these (epidemic) models to create a (pandemic) model of viral spread among regions. Our focus is on a second wave of new…
In the absence of neither an effective treatment or vaccine and with an incomplete understanding of the epidemiological cycle, Govt. has implemented a nationwide lockdown to reduce COVID-19 transmission in India. To study the effect of…
Currently, the evolution of Covid-19 allows researchers to gather the datasets accumulated over 2 years and to use them in predictive analysis. In turn, this makes it possible to assess the efficiency potential of more complex predictive…
By using the public data from Jan. 20 to Feb. 11, 2020, we perform data-driven analysis and forecasting on the COVID-19 epidemic in mainland China, especially Hubei province. Our results show that the turning points of the daily infections…
Starting with the power law for the total number of detected infections, we propose differential equations describing the effect of momentum epidemic management. Our 2-phase formula matches very well the curves of the total numbers of the…