Related papers: Lessons from being challenged by COVID-19
The COVID-19 pandemic has forced public health experts to develop contingent policies to stem the spread of infection, including measures such as partial/complete lockdowns. The effectiveness of these policies has varied with geography,…
In December 2019, the first patients in Wuhan, China were diagnosed with a primary atypical pneumonia, which showed to be unknown and contagious. Since then, known as COVID-19 disease, the responsible viral pathogen, SARS-CoV-2, has spread…
The COVID-19 pandemic prompted a surge in computational models to simulate disease dynamics and guide interventions. Agent-based models (ABMs) are well-suited to capture population and environmental heterogeneity, but their rapid deployment…
In a world being hit by waves of COVID-19, vaccination is a light on the horizon. However, the roll-out of vaccination strategies and their influence on the pandemic are still open problems. In order to compare the effect of various…
Addressed in this work is the performance of five popular algorithms, which aim at assessing the dissemination dynamics of the COVID-19 disease on the basis of the time series of new confirmed cases. The tests are based on simulated data,…
We present an empirical algorithm to forecast the evolution of the number of COVID-19 symptomatic patients in the early stages of the pandemic spread and after strict social distancing interventions. The algorithm is based on a low…
COVID-19 is an infectious respiratory disease that the World Health Organization has declared a pandemic. Although a global phenomenon, there is the need to react locally with swift and informed actions, as some of the essential plans are…
The COVID19 pandemic highlighted the importance of non-traditional data sources, such as mobile phone data, to inform effective public health interventions and monitor adherence to such measures. Previous studies showed how socioeconomic…
We present an early version of a Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered-Deceased (SEIRD) mathematical model based on partial differential equations coupled with a heterogeneous diffusion model. The model describes the spatio-temporal spread…
With a 676% growth rate in HIV incidence between 2010 and 2021, the HIV/AIDS epidemic in the Philippines is the one that is spreading the quickest in the western Pacific. Although the full effects of COVID-19 on HIV services and development…
The novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has spread rapidly across the world in a short period of time and with a heterogeneous pattern. Understanding the underlying temporal and spatial dynamics in the spread of COVID-19 can result in…
We study the effects of physical distancing measures for the spread of COVID-19 in regional areas within British Columbia, using the reported cases of the five provincial Health Authorities. Building on the Bayesian epidemiological model of…
The challenges posed by epidemics and pandemics are immense, especially if the causes are novel. This article introduces a versatile open-source simulation framework designed to model intricate dynamics of infectious diseases across diverse…
In June 2020, Arizona, U.S., emerged as one of the world's worst coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19) spots after the stay-at-home order was lifted in the middle of May. However, with the decisions to reimpose restrictions, the number of…
We investigate, through a data-driven contact tracing model, the transmission of COVID-19 inside buses during distinct phases of the pandemic in a large Brazilian city. From this microscopic approach, we recover the networks of close…
The COVID-19 pandemic represents the most significant public health disaster since the 1918 influenza pandemic. During pandemics such as COVID-19, timely and reliable spatio-temporal forecasting of epidemic dynamics is crucial. Deep…
Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) have played a crucial role in controlling the spread of COVID-19. Nevertheless, NPI efficacy varies enormously between and within countries, mainly because of population and behavioural heterogeneity.…
We develop an agent-based model to assess the cumulative number of deaths during hypothetical Covid-19-like epidemics for various non-pharmaceutical intervention strategies. We consider local and non-local modes of disease transmission. The…
The COVID-19 epidemic that emerged in Wuhan China at the end of 2019 hit Italy particularly hard, yielding the implementation of strict national lockdown rules (Phase 1). There is now a hot ongoing debate in Italy and abroad on what the…
In this study, we analyze the effectiveness of measures aimed at finding and isolating infected individuals to contain epidemics like COVID-19, as the suppression induced over the effective reproduction number. We develop a mathematical…