Related papers: Nonparametric Expected Shortfall Forecasting Incor…

Model averaging has demonstrated superior performance for ensemble forecasting in high-dimensional framework, its extension to incomplete datasets remains a critical but underexplored challenge. Moreover, identifying the parsimonious model…

This research presents a framework for quantitative risk management in volatile markets, specifically focusing on expectile-based methodologies applied to the FTSE 100 index. Traditional risk measures such as Value-at-Risk (VaR) have…

In multivariate time series analysis, spectral coherence measures the linear dependency between two time series at different frequencies. However, real data applications often exhibit nonlinear dependency in the frequency domain.…

We consider both $\ell _{0}$-penalized and $\ell _{0}$-constrained quantile regression estimators. For the $\ell _{0}$-penalized estimator, we derive an exponential inequality on the tail probability of excess quantile prediction risk and…

This paper presents a novel approach to stochastic economic model predictive control (SEMPC) that minimizes average economic cost while satisfying an empirical expected shortfall (EES) constraint to manage risk. A new scenario-based problem…

In this paper, we propose an empirical likelihood-based weighted estimator of regression parameter in quantile regression model with nonignorable missing covariates. The proposed estimator is computationally simple and achieves…

In this article, we propose a penalized high dimensional semiparametric model average quantile prediction approach that is robust for forecasting the conditional quantile of the response. We consider a two-step estimation procedure. In the…

This paper develops a semi-parametric procedure for estimation of unconditional quantile partial effects using quantile regression coefficients. The estimator is based on an identification result showing that, for continuous covariates,…

We study semiparametric varying-coefficient partially linear models when some linear covariates are not observed, but ancillary variables are available. Semiparametric profile least-square based estimation procedures are developed for…

Semiparametric regression offers a flexible framework for modeling non-linear relationships between a response and covariates. A prime example are generalized additive models where splines (say) are used to approximate non-linear functional…

This paper proposes a new approach to sales forecasting for new products with long lead time but short product life cycle. These SKUs are usually sold for one season only, without any replenishments. An exponential factorization machine…

In this paper we propose a semi-parametric Bayesian Generalized Least Squares estimator. In a generic setting where each error is a vector, the parametric Generalized Least Square estimator maintains the assumption that each error vector…

Systemic risk measures quantify the potential risk to an individual financial constituent arising from the distress of entire financial system. As a generalization of two widely applied risk measures, Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall,…

Two-stage stochastic programming is a popular framework for optimization under uncertainty, where decision variables are split between first-stage decisions, and second-stage (or recourse) decisions, with the latter being adjusted after…

Uncertainty analysis in the form of probabilistic forecasting can provide significant improvements in decision-making processes in the smart power grid for better integrating renewable energies such as wind. Whereas point forecasting…

Accurate forecasting of the Volatility-Covariance Matrix (VCV) is central to regulatory capital adequacy processes such as the Internal Capital Adequacy Assessment Process (ICAAP) and the Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review (CCAR).…

CoVaR (conditional value-at-risk) is a crucial measure for assessing financial systemic risk, which is defined as a conditional quantile of a random variable, conditioned on other random variables reaching specific quantiles. It enables the…

We study the properties of Expected Shortfall from the point of view of financial risk management. This measure --- which emerges as a natural remedy in some cases where Value at Risk (VaR) is not able to distinguish portfolios which bear…

Machine learning is vital in high-stakes domains, yet conventional validation methods rely on averaging metrics like mean squared error (MSE) or mean absolute error (MAE), which fail to quantify extreme errors. Worst-case prediction…

In this paper, a new estimation method is introduced for the quantile spectrum, which uses a parametric form of the autoregressive (AR) spectrum coupled with nonparametric smoothing. The method begins with quantile periodograms which are…