Related papers: Nonparametric Expected Shortfall Forecasting Incor…
We propose nonparametric estimators for conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) and conditional expected shortfall (CES) associated with conditional distributions of a series of returns on a financial asset. The return series and the conditioning…
In this paper we propose a multivariate quantile regression framework to forecast Value at Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) of multiple financial assets simultaneously, extending Taylor (2019). We generalize the Multivariate…
Expected Shortfall (ES) in several variants has been proposed as remedy for the defi-ciencies of Value-at-Risk (VaR) which in general is not a coherent risk measure. In fact, most definitions of ES lead to the same results when applied to…
In this article, by using composite asymmetric least squares (CALS) and empirical likelihood, we propose a two-step procedure to estimate the conditional value at risk (VaR) and conditional expected shortfall (ES) for the GARCH series.…
Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) are widely used in the financial sector to measure the market risk and manage the extreme market movement. The recent link between the quantile score function and the Asymmetric Laplace…
The contour maps of the error of historical resp. parametric estimates for large random portfolios optimized under the risk measure Expected Shortfall (ES) are constructed. Similar maps for the sensitivity of the portfolio weights to small…
We introduce new forecast encompassing tests for the risk measure Expected Shortfall (ES). The ES currently receives much attention through its introduction into the Basel III Accords, which stipulate its use as the primary market risk…
Quantiles and expected shortfalls are commonly used risk measures in financial risk management. The two measurements are correlated while have distinguished features. In this project, our primary goal is to develop stable and practical…
In the recent Basel Accords, the Expected Shortfall (ES) replaces the Value-at-Risk (VaR) as the standard risk measure for market risk in the banking sector, making it the most important risk measure in financial regulation. One of the most…
We propose a multilevel stochastic approximation (MLSA) scheme for the computation of the value-at-risk (VaR) and expected shortfall (ES) of a financial loss, which can only be computed via simulations conditionally on the realisation of…
Expected Shortfall (ES), the average loss above a high quantile, is the current financial regulatory market risk measure. Its estimation and optimization are highly unstable against sample fluctuations and become impossible above a critical…
This paper introduces novel backtests for the risk measure Expected Shortfall (ES) following the testing idea of Mincer and Zarnowitz (1969). Estimating a regression framework for the ES stand-alone is infeasible, and thus, our tests are…
The estimation of parameter standard errors for semi-variogram models is challenging, given the two-step process required to fit a parametric model to spatially correlated data. Motivated by an application in the social-epidemiology, we…
It is known that the estimating equations for quantile regression (QR) can be solved using an EM algorithm in which the M-step is computed via weighted least squares, with weights computed at the E-step as the expectation of independent…
We show that the estimating equations for quantile regression can be solved using a simple EM algorithm in which the M-step is computed via weighted least squares, with weights computed at the E-step as the expectation of independent…
We propose forecast encompassing tests for the Expected Shortfall (ES) jointly with the Value at Risk (VaR) based on flexible link (or combination) functions. Our setup allows testing encompassing for convex forecast combinations and for…
The complexity of semiparametric models poses new challenges to statistical inference and model selection that frequently arise from real applications. In this work, we propose new estimation and variable selection procedures for the…
We propose an $\ell_1$-penalized estimator for high-dimensional models of Expected Shortfall (ES). The estimator is obtained as the solution to a least-squares problem for an auxiliary dependent variable, which is defined as a…
A novel estimation approach for a general class of semi-parametric multivariate time series models is introduced where the conditional mean is modeled through parametric functions. The focus of the estimation is the conditional mean…
This paper proposes a novel class of generalized Expected-Shortfall (ES) norms constructed via distortion risk measures, establishing a unified analytical framework for risk quantification. The proposed norms extend conventional ES…