Related papers: Long-range correlations in Covid-19 growth
Phenomenological and deterministic models are often used for the estimation of transmission parameters in an epidemic and for the prediction of its growth trajectory. Such analyses are usually based on single peak outbreak dynamics. In…
We propose a robust parameter estimation method for dynamical systems based on Statistical Learning techniques which aims to estimate a set of parameters that well fit the dynamics in order to obtain robust evidences about the qualitative…
To accurately predict the regional spread of Covid-19 infection, this study proposes a novel hybrid model which combines a Long short-term memory (LSTM) artificial recurrent neural network with dynamic behavioral models. Several factors and…
Long-range power-law correlated percolation is investigated using Monte Carlo simulations. We obtain several static and dynamic critical exponents as function of the Hurst exponent $H$ which characterizes the degree of spatial correlation…
Social distancing and stay-at-home are among the few measures that are known to be effective in checking the spread of a pandemic such as COVID-19 in a given population. The patterns of dependency between such measures and their effects on…
COVID-19 has impacted the economy of almost every country in the world. Of particular interest are the responses of the economic indicators of developing nations (such as BRICS) to the COVID-19 shock. As an extension to our earlier work on…
The implementation of social distancing policies is key to reducing the impact of the current COVID-19 pandemic. However, their effectiveness ultimately depends on human behavior. In the United States, compliance with social distancing…
The number of corona virus (COVID-19) infections grows worldwide. In order to create short term predictions to prepare for the extent of the global pandemic we analyze infection data from the top 25 affected countries. It is shown that all…
More and more countries show a significant slowdown in the number of new COVID-19 infections due to effective governmentally instituted lockdown and social distancing measures. We have analyzed the growth behavior of the top 25 most…
Scale invariance (fractality) is a prominent feature of the large-scale behavior of many stochastic systems. In this work, we construct an algorithm for the statistical identification of the Hurst distribution (in particular, the scaling…
We have proposed a new form of growth rate for population ecology. Generally, the growth rate is dependent on the size of the population at that particular epoch. We have introduced an alternative time-dependent form of growth rate. This…
In the present work we investigate the multiscale nature of the correlations for high frequency data (1 minute) in different futures markets over a period of two years, starting on the 1st of January 2003 and ending on the 31st of December…
An important parameter for COVID-19 is the case fatality rate (CFR). It has been applied to wide applications, including the measure of the severity of the infection, the estimation of the number of infected cases, risk assessment etc.…
Researchers have shown that even simple empirical models stemming from biological growth modeling have the potential to provide useful information on the development and severity of ongoing epidemics since they can be employed as tools for…
Large-scale testing is considered key to assess the state of the current COVID-19 pandemic. Yet, the link between the reported case numbers and the true state of the pandemic remains elusive. We develop mathematical models based on…
We analyze risk factors correlated with the initial transmission growth rate of the recent COVID-19 pandemic in different countries. The number of cases follows in its early stages an almost exponential expansion; we chose as a starting…
We present a simple technique to compare the development of the Covid-19 epidemic in different regions, based only on the time series of confirmed cases. Weekly new infections, taken for every day, are interpreted as infection potential of…
We propose a time-fractional compartmental model (SEI$_A$I$_S$HRD) comprising of the susceptible, exposed, infected (asymptomatic and symptomatic), hospitalized, recovered and dead population for the Covid-19 pandemic. We study the…
In this work, a proposal for the estimation of the populations using logistic curve fitting is presented. This type of curve is used to study population growth, in this case population of people infected with the Covid-19 virus; and it can…
In this paper, we apply statistical methods for functional data to explain the heterogeneity in the evolution of number of deaths of Covid-19 over different regions. We treat the cumulative daily number of deaths in a specific region as a…