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Recently, new methods for model assessment, based on subsampling and posterior approximations, have been proposed for scaling leave-one-out cross-validation (LOO) to large datasets. Although these methods work well for estimating predictive…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-08-12 Måns Magnusson , Michael Riis Andersen , Johan Jonasson , Aki Vehtari

Consider the problem of estimating a weighted average of the means of $n$ strata, based on a random sample with realized $K_i$ observations from stratum $i, \; i=1,...,n$. This task is non-trivial in cases where for a significant portion of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-11-21 Eitan Greenshtein , Ya'acov Ritov

Finding the best setup for experiments is the primary concern for Optimal Experimental Design (OED). Here, we focus on the Bayesian experimental design problem of finding the setup that maximizes the Shannon expected information gain. We…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2020-02-28 Andre Gustavo Carlon , Ben Mansour Dia , Luis FR Espath , Rafael Holdorf Lopez , Raul Tempone

Two-step predictor/corrector methods are provided to solve three classes of problems that present themselves as systems of ordinary differential equations (ODEs). In the first class, velocities are given from which displacements are to be…

Numerical Analysis · Computer Science 2017-07-10 Alan D. Freed

We consider the linear regression problem under semi-supervised settings wherein the available data typically consists of: (i) a small or moderate sized 'labeled' data, and (ii) a much larger sized 'unlabeled' data. Such data arises…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-07-02 Abhishek Chakrabortty , Tianxi Cai

We propose a new unbiased estimator for estimating the utility of the optimal stopping problem. The MUSE, short for Multilevel Unbiased Stopping Estimator, constructs the unbiased Multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) estimator at every stage of…

Computation · Statistics 2022-12-29 Zhengqing Zhou , Guanyang Wang , Jose Blanchet , Peter W. Glynn

This paper establishes the first-order convergence rate for the ergodic error of numerical approximations to a class of stochastic ODEs (SODEs) with superlinear coefficients and multiplicative noise. By leveraging the generator approach to…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2026-01-06 Xin Liu , Zhihui Liu

We study maximum likelihood estimation in log-linear models under conditional Poisson sampling schemes. We derive necessary and sufficient conditions for existence of the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) of the model parameters and…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2012-07-24 Stephen E. Fienberg , Alessandro Rinaldo

The problem of parameter estimation by the observations of the two-state telegraph process in the presence of white Gaussian noise is considered. The properties of estimator of the method of moments are described in the asymptotics of large…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-09-10 Rafail Khasminskii , Yury Kutoyants

The paper considers the problem of out-of-sample risk estimation under the high dimensional settings where standard techniques such as $K$-fold cross validation suffer from large biases. Motivated by the low bias of the leave-one-out cross…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-02-12 Kamiar Rahnama Rad , Arian Maleki

This paper studies computationally and theoretically attractive estimators called the Laplace type estimators (LTE), which include means and quantiles of Quasi-posterior distributions defined as transformations of general…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-01-20 Victor Chernozhukov , Han Hong

Much of the theory of estimation for exponential family models, which include exponential-family random graph models (ERGMs) as a special case, is well-established and maximum likelihood estimates in particular enjoy many desirable…

Computation · Statistics 2020-09-07 Christian S. Schmid , David R. Hunter

Stochastic estimators are fundamental to large-scale optimization, where population quantities must be inferred from noisy oracle observations. Although influential methods such as momentum, SPIDER, STORM, and PAGE have been highly…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-18 Zhankun Luo , Antesh Upadhyay , M. Berk Sahin , Sang Bin Moon , Anuran Makur , Abolfazl Hashemi

Modern large-scale statistical models require to estimate thousands to millions of parameters. This is often accomplished by iterative algorithms such as gradient descent, projected gradient descent or their accelerated versions. What are…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-03-04 Michael Celentano , Andrea Montanari , Yuchen Wu

A discrete statistical model is a subset of a probability simplex. Its maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) is a retraction from that simplex onto the model. We characterize all models for which this retraction is a rational function. This is…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-06-16 Eliana Duarte , Orlando Marigliano , Bernd Sturmfels

Given p independent normal populations, we consider the problem of estimating the mean of those populations, that based on the observed data, give the strongest signals. We explicitly condition on the ranking of the sample means, and…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-02-28 Claudio Fuentes , Vik Gopal

Estimating the size of hidden populations using Multiple Systems Estimation (MSE) is a critical task in quantitative sociology; however, practical application is often hindered by imperfect administrative data and computational constraints.…

Applications · Statistics 2026-01-12 Joseph Marsh , Nathan A. Judd , Lax Chan , Rowland G. Seymour

We consider the fundamental learning problem of estimating properties of distributions over large domains. Using a novel piecewise-polynomial approximation technique, we derive the first unified methodology for constructing sample- and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-03-18 Yi Hao , Alon Orlitsky

Score matching estimators have garnered significant attention in recent years because they eliminate the need to compute normalizing constants, thereby mitigating the computational challenges associated with maximum likelihood estimation…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-05 Haoqun Cao , Yixuan Zhang , Feng Zhou

This paper establishes asymptotic results for the maximum likelihood and restricted maximum likelihood (REML) estimators of the parameters in the nested error regression model for clustered data when both of the number of independent…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-01-25 Ziyang Lyu , A. H. Welsh