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Let $\{X_n\}$ be a stationary and ergodic time series taking values from a finite or countably infinite set ${\cal X}$. Assume that the distribution of the process is otherwise unknown. We propose a sequence of stopping times $\lambda_n$…

Probability · Mathematics 2008-06-19 G. Morvai , B. Weiss

We consider the standard first passage percolation model on $\mathbb Z^d$ with bounded and bounded away from zero weights. We show that the rescaled passage time $\widetilde{\mathbf T}_{n,X}$ restricted to a compact set $X$ satisfies a…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-04-16 Julien Verges

In this paper, we derive the moderate deviation principle for stationary sequences of bounded random variables with values in a Hilbert space. The conditions obtained are expressed in terms of martingale-type conditions. The main tools are…

Probability · Mathematics 2009-01-21 Sophie Dede

We provide a criterion for establishing lower bounds on the rate of convergence in $f$-variation of a continuous-time ergodic Markov process to its invariant measure. The criterion consists of novel super- and submartingale conditions for…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-04-16 Miha Brešar , Aleksandar Mijatović

We consider the system of one-sided reflected Brownian motions which is in variational duality with Brownian last passage percolation. We show that it has integrable transition probabilities, expressed in terms of Hermite polynomials and…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-08-30 Mihai Nica , Jeremy Quastel , Daniel Remenik

Sublinearly Morse directions in proper geodesic spaces are defined by sublinearly Morse stability. In this paper we offer an alternative characterization for sublinearly Morse geodesic lines via middle recurrence. We then study first…

Geometric Topology · Mathematics 2026-03-26 Sagnik Jana , Yulan Qing

We develop an estimator for the high-dimensional covariance matrix of a locally stationary process with a smoothly varying trend and use this statistic to derive consistent predictors in non-stationary time series. In contrast to the…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-01-08 Holger Dette , Weichi Wu

The 1+1 dimensional directed polymers in a Poissonean random environment is studied. For two polymers of maximal length with the same origin and distinct end points we establish that the point of last branching is governed by the exponent…

Mathematical Physics · Physics 2007-05-23 Patrik L. Ferrari , Herbert Spohn

We consider translation invariant measures on families of nearest-neighbor semi-infinite walks on the integer lattice. We assume that once walks meet, they coalesce. In $2d$, we classify the collective behavior of these walks under mild…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-01-01 Jon Chaika , Arjun Krishnan

We survey some results and applications of last percolation models of which the limiting distribution can be evaluated.

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Jinho Baik

Consider the Totally Asymmetric Simple Exclusion Process (TASEP) on the integer lattice $ \mathbb{Z} $. We study the functional Large Deviations of the integrated current $ \mathsf{h}(t,x) $ under the hyperbolic scaling of space and time by…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-02-14 Stefano Olla , Li-Cheng Tsai

We consider first-passage percolation on the $d$ dimensional cubic lattice for $d \geq 2$; that is, we assign independently to each edge $e$ a nonnegative random weight $t_e$ with a common distribution and consider the induced random graph…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-04-21 Michael Damron , Naoki Kubota

In this paper, we establish the first large deviation bounds for the Airy point process. The proof is based on a novel approach which relies upon the approximation of the Airy point process using the Gaussian unitary ensemble (GUE) up to an…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-10-23 Chenyang Zhong

In this paper, we present large deviation theory that characterizes the exponential estimate for rare events of stochastic dynamical systems in the limit of weak noise. We aim to consider next-to-leading-order approximation for more…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-06-21 Yang Li , Shenglan Yuan , Linghongzhi Lu , Xianbin Liu

Consider first passage percolation with identical and independent weight distributions and first passage time ${\rm T}$. In this paper, we study the upper tail large deviations $\mathbb{P}({\rm T}(0,nx)>n(\mu+\xi))$, for $\xi>0$ and $x\neq…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-02-02 Clément Cosco , Shuta Nakajima

In the classic model of first passage percolation, for pairs of vertices separated by a Euclidean distance $L$, geodesics exhibit deviations from their mean length $L$ that are of order $L^\chi$, while the transversal fluctuations, known as…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2019-11-14 Alexander P. Kartun-Giles , Marc Barthelemy , Carl P. Dettmann

A law of the iterated logarithm is established for the last passage times of directed percolation on rectangles in the plane over exponential or geometric independent random variables, rescaled to converge to the Tracy-Widom distribution.…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-10-07 Michel Ledoux

We study the statistics of last-passage time for linear diffusions. First we present an elementary derivation of the Laplace transform of the probability density of the last-passage time, thus recovering known results from the mathematical…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2020-11-24 Alain Comtet , Françoise Cornu , Gregory Schehr

A novel first-order autoregressive moving average model for analyzing discrete-time series observed at irregularly spaced times is introduced. Under Gaussianity, it is established that the model is strictly stationary and ergodic. In the…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-03-31 Cesar Ojeda , Wilfredo Palma , Susana Eyheramendy , Felipe Elorrieta

For first passage percolation (FPP) on Euclidean lattices $\mathbb{Z}^d$ with $d\ge 2$, it is expected that the variance of the first passage time between two points grows sublinearly in the distance with a universal exponent strictly…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-04-02 Riddhipratim Basu , Vladas Sidoravicius , Allan Sly
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