Related papers: Predictive data assimilation through Reduced Order…

We present an early version of a Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered-Deceased (SEIRD) mathematical model based on partial differential equations coupled with a heterogeneous diffusion model. The model describes the spatio-temporal spread…

In this work, the SIR epidemiological model is reformulated so to highlight the important {\em effective reproduction number}, as well as to account for the {\em generation time}, inverse of the {\em incidence rate}, and the {\em infectious…

We present a data-driven optimal control approach which integrates the reported partial data with the epidemic dynamics for COVID-19. We use a basic Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) model, the model parameters are…

The current global health emergency triggered by the pandemic COVID-19 is one of the greatest challenges mankind face in this generation. Computational simulations have played an important role to predict the development of the current…

Computational models for the simulation of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) epidemic evolution would be extremely useful to support authorities in designing healthcare policies and lockdown measures to…

The advent of the COVID-19 pandemic has instigated unprecedented changes in many countries around the globe, putting a significant burden on the health sectors, affecting the macro economic conditions, and altering social interactions…

The recent COVID-19 pandemic has thrown the importance of accurately forecasting contagion dynamics and learning infection parameters into sharp focus. At the same time, effective policy-making requires knowledge of the uncertainty on such…

The problem of dealing with misreported data is very common in a wide range of contexts for different reasons. The current situation caused by the Covid-19 worldwide pandemic is a clear example, where the data provided by official sources…

The error analysis of a proper orthogonal decomposition (POD) data assimilation (DA) scheme for the Navier-Stokes equations is carried out. A grad-div stabilization term is added to the formulation of the POD method. Error bounds with…

In this article, we model and study the spread of COVID-19 in Germany, Japan, India and highly impacted states in India, i.e., in Delhi, Maharashtra, West Bengal, Kerala and Karnataka. We consider recorded data published in Worldometers and…

We provide an overview of the methods that can be used for prediction under uncertainty and data fitting of dynamical systems, and of the fundamental challenges that arise in this context. The focus is on SIR-like models, that are being…

The emergence and spread of deadly pandemics has repeatedly occurred throughout history, causing widespread infections and loss of life. The rapid spread of pandemics have made governments across the world adopt a range of actions,…

Data assimilation, consisting in the combination of a dynamical model with a set of noisy and incomplete observations in order to infer the state of a system over time, involves uncertainty in most settings. Building upon an existing…

Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) models with inter-individual variation in susceptibility or exposure to infection were proposed early in the COVID-19 pandemic as a potential element of the mathematical/statistical toolset…

This is work in progress. We make it accessible hoping that people might find the idea useful. We propose a discrete, recursive 5-compartment model for the spread of epidemics, which we call {\em SEPIR-model}. Under mild assumptions which…

The COVID-19 pandemic has created unprecedented challenges worldwide. Strained healthcare providers make difficult decisions on patient triage, treatment and care management on a daily basis. Policy makers have imposed social distancing…

Several models have been developed to predict how the COVID-19 pandemic spreads, and how it could be contained with non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) such as social distancing restrictions and school and business closures. This paper…

Epidemiological models contain a set of parameters that must be adjusted based on available observations. Once a model has been calibrated, it can be used as a forecasting tool to make predictions and to evaluate contingency plans. It is…

An analytic solution is obtained to the SEIR Epidemic Model. The solution is created by constructing a single second-order nonlinear differential equation in $\ln S$ and analytically continuing its divergent power series solution such that…

We propose an SEIR-type meta-population model to simulate and monitor the Covid-19 epidemic evolution. The basic model consists of seven compartments, namely susceptible (S), exposed (E), three infective classes, recovered (R), and deceased…