Related papers: How long does a lockdown need to be?
The current COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent lockdowns have highlighted the close and delicate relationship between a country's public health and economic health. Macroeconomic models that use preexisting epidemic models to calculate the…
The success of public health policies aimed at curtailing the COVID-19 pandemic have relied on large-scale and protracted compliance by the public. A series of studies have recently argued that previous voting patterns are important…
Social distancing plays a pivotal role in preventing the spread of viral diseases illnesses such as COVID-19. By minimizing the close physical contact among people, we can reduce the chances of catching the virus and spreading it across the…
We propose a novel model-based clustering approach for samples of time series. We assume as a unique commonality that two observations belong to the same group if structural changes in their behaviours happen at the same time. We resort to…
No, they can't. Epidemic spread is characterized by exponentially growing dynamics, which are intrinsically unpredictable. The time at which the growth in the number of infected individuals halts and starts decreasing cannot be calculated…
A recent work (DOI 10.1101/2020.05.06.20093310) indicated that temporarily splitting larger populations into smaller groups can efficiently mitigate the spread of SARS-CoV-2 virus. The fact that, soon afterwards, on May 15, 2020, the two…
In this work, the SIR epidemiological model is reformulated so to highlight the important {\em effective reproduction number}, as well as to account for the {\em generation time}, inverse of the {\em incidence rate}, and the {\em infectious…
We propose a stochastic SIR model, specified as a system of stochastic differential equations, to analyse the data of the Italian COVID-19 epidemic, taking also into account the under-detection of infected and recovered individuals in the…
We consider an epidemic process on adaptive activity-driven temporal networks, with adaptive behaviour modelled as a change in activity and attractiveness due to infection. By using a mean-field approach, we derive an analytical estimate of…
With a two-layer contact-dispersion model and data in China, we analyze the cost-effectiveness of three types of antiepidemic measures for COVID-19: regular epidemiological control, local social interaction control, and inter-city travel…
The COVID-19 pandemic has caused more than 8 million confirmed cases and 500,000 death to date. In response to this emergency, many countries have introduced a series of social-distancing measures including lockdowns and businesses'…
The sudden spread of Covid-19 outside China has pushed on March 11 the World Health Organization to acknowledge the ongoing outbreak as a pandemic. It is crucial in this phase to understand what should countries which presently lag behind…
The symptoms of many infectious diseases influence their host to withdraw from social activity limiting their own potential to spread. Successful transmission therefore requires the onset of infectiousness to coincide with a time when its…
The outbreak of an infectious disease in a human population can lead to individuals responding with preventive measures in an attempt to avoid getting infected. This leads to changes in contact patterns. However, as we show in this paper,…
In this article, we investigate the importance of demographic and contact patterns in determining the spread of COVID-19 and to the effectiveness of social distancing policies. We investigate these questions proposing an augmented…
We study a multi-type SIR epidemic process among a heterogeneous population that interacts through a network. When we base social contact on a random graph with given vertex degrees, we give limit theorems on the fraction of infected…
The spreading dynamics of infectious diseases is influenced by individual behaviours, which are in turn affected by the level of awareness about the epidemic. Modelling the co-evolution of disease transmission and behavioural changes within…
Many countries have passed their first COVID-19 epidemic peak. Traditional epidemiological models describe this as a result of non-pharmaceutical interventions that pushed the growth rate below the recovery rate. In this new phase of the…
We employ the epidemic Renormalization Group (eRG) framework to understand, reproduce and predict the COVID-19 pandemic diffusion across the US. The human mobility across different geographical US divisions is modelled via open source…
This paper studies if and to which extent COVID-19 epidemics can be controlled by authorities taking decisions on public health measures on the basis of daily reports of swab test results, active cases and total cases. A suitably simplified…