Related papers: How long does a lockdown need to be?
The development and authorization of COVID-19 vaccines has provided the clearest path forward to eliminate community spread hence end the ongoing SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. However, the limited pace at which the vaccine can be administered…
The emergence of the novel Coronavirus Disease in late 2019 (COVID-19) and subsequent pandemic led to an immense disruption in the daily lives of almost everyone on the planet. Faced with the consequences of inaction, most national…
Strong social distancing restrictions have been crucial to controlling the COVID-19 outbreak thus far, and the next question is when and how to relax these restrictions. A sequential timing of relaxing restrictions across groups is explored…
Widespread opinions and discussion exist regarding the efficiency of social distancing after crucial spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus during the actual Covid-19 pandemic. While Germany has released a federal law that prohibits any type of…
We recently described a dynamic causal model of a COVID-19 outbreak within a single region. Here, we combine several of these (epidemic) models to create a (pandemic) model of viral spread among regions. Our focus is on a second wave of new…
The frequent emergence of diseases with the potential to become threats at local and global scales, such as influenza A(H1N1), SARS, MERS, and recently COVID-19 disease, makes it crucial to keep designing models of disease propagation and…
During the COVID-19 pandemic, the behavioral response to reported case numbers changed drastically over time. While a few dozen cases were enough to trigger government-induced and voluntary contact reduction in early 2020, less than a year…
With the logistic challenges faced by most countries for the production, distribution, and application of vaccines for the novel coronavirus disease~(COVID-19), social distancing~(SD) remains the most tangible approach to mitigate the…
Attempts to control the epidemic spread of COVID19 in the different countries often involve imposing restrictions to the mobility of citizens. Recent examples demonstrate that the effectiveness of these policies strongly depends on the…
While COVID-19 is rapidly propagating around the globe, the need for providing real-time forecasts of the epidemics pushes fits of dynamical and statistical models to available data beyond their capabilities. Here we focus on statistical…
We develop a multiple-events model and exploit within and between country variation in the timing, type and level of intensity of various public policies to study their dynamic effects on the daily incidence of COVID-19 and on population…
Models for control of epidemics on local, global and small-world networks are considered, with only partial information accessible about the status of individuals and their connections. The main goal of an effective control measure is to…
The spread of the coronavirus (COVID-19), starting in late 2019, has determined in Italy several interventions aimed to prevent saturation of the health system. We have examined the effects of such measures by proposing a mean-field model…
During the COVID-19 pandemic, governments have tried to keep their territories safe by isolating themselves from others, limiting non-essential travel and imposing mandatory quarantines for travelers. While large-scale quarantine has been…
By equipping a previously reported dynamic causal model of COVID-19 with an isolation state, we modelled the effects of self-isolation consequent on tracking and tracing. Specifically, we included a quarantine or isolation state occupied by…
The COVID-19 pandemic is largely caused by airborne transmission, a phenomenon that rapidly gained the attention of the scientific community. Social distancing is of paramount importance to limit the spread of the disease, but to design…
The implementation of social distancing policies is key to reducing the impact of the current COVID-19 pandemic. However, their effectiveness ultimately depends on human behavior. In the United States, compliance with social distancing…
We have established a novel mathematical model that considers various aspects of the spreading of the virus, including, the transmission based on being in the latent period, environment to human transmission, governmental decisions, and…
High impact epidemics constitute one of the largest threats humanity is facing in the 21st century. Testing, contact tracing and quarantining are critical in slowing down epidemic dynamics, but may prove insufficient for highly contagious…
Coronavirus outbreak is one of the most challenging pandemics for the entire human population of the planet Earth. Techniques such as the isolation of infected persons and maintaining social distancing are the only preventive measures…