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We use the concept of excursions for the prediction of random variables without any moment existence assumptions. To do so, an excursion metric on the space of random variables is defined which appears to be a kind of a weighted…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-09-07 Vitalii Makogin , Evgeny Spodarev

Motivated by the computational difficulties incurred by popular deep learning algorithms for the generative modeling of temporal densities, we propose a cheap alternative which requires minimal hyperparameter tuning and scales favorably to…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-10-13 Jonah Botvinick-Greenhouse , Yunan Yang , Romit Maulik

Analyzing the urban trajectory in cities has become an important topic in data mining. How can we model the human mobility consisting of stay and travel from the raw trajectory data? How can we infer such a mobility model from the single…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-01-22 Lei Shi

Due to recurrent (e.g. daily or weekly) patterns and non-recurrent disruptions (e.g. caused by incidents), travel times in road networks are time-dependent and inherently random. This is challenging for travelers planning a future trip,…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2022-09-01 Rens Kamphuis , Nikki Levering , Michel Mandjes

This paper proposes a probabilistic framework for the sequential estimation of the likelihood of a driver or passenger(s) returning to the vehicle and time of arrival, from the available partial track of the user location. The latter can be…

Applications · Statistics 2017-09-22 Bashar I. Ahmad , Patrick M. Langdon , Simon J. Godsill , Mauricio Delgado , Thomas Popham

This paper leverages macroscopic models and multi-source spatiotemporal data collected from automatic traffic counters and probe vehicles to accurately estimate traffic flow and travel time in links where these measurements are unavailable.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-01-31 Pablo Guarda , Sean Qian

Despite the long history of modelling human mobility, we continue to lack a highly accurate approach with low data requirements for predicting mobility patterns in cities. Here, we present a population-weighted opportunities model without…

Physics and Society · Physics 2017-10-03 Xiao-Yong Yan , Chen Zhao , Ying Fan , Zengru Di , Wen-Xu Wang

We propose a novel approach for trip prediction by analyzing user's trip histories. We augment users' (self-) trip histories by adding 'similar' trips from other users, which could be informative and useful for predicting future trips for a…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2023-01-02 Yuxin Chen , Morteza Haghir Chehreghani

In this paper, we consider a dynamic equilibrium transportation problem. There is a fixed number of cars moving from origin to destination areas. Preferences for arrival times are expressed as a cost of arriving before or after the…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2024-09-02 Victoria Guseva , Ilya Sklonin , Irina Podlipnova , Demyan Yarmoshik , Alexander Gasnikov

In this Working Paper we analyse computational strategies for using aggregated spatio-temporal population data acquired from telecommunications networks to infer travel and movement patterns between geographical regions. Specifically, we…

Inter-city highway transportation is significant for urban life. As one of the key functions in intelligent transportation system (ITS), traffic evaluation always plays significant role nowadays, and daily traffic flow prediction still…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-08-11 Weilong Ding , Tianpu Zhang , Jianwu Wang , Zhuofeng Zhao

Traffic prediction is one of the most significant foundations in Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS). Traditional traffic prediction methods rely only on historical traffic data to predict traffic trends and face two main challenges.…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-03-15 Chengyang Zhang , Yong Zhang , Qitan Shao , Jiangtao Feng , Bo Li , Yisheng Lv , Xinglin Piao , Baocai Yin

Estimating the travel time of any route is of great importance for trip planners, traffic operators, online taxi dispatching and ride-sharing platforms, and navigation provider systems. With the advance of technology, many traveling cars,…

Accurate and reliable prediction of traffic measurements plays a crucial role in the development of modern intelligent transportation systems. Due to more complex road geometries and the presence of signal control, arterial traffic…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-30 Victor Chan , Qijian Gan , Alexandre Bayen

The importance of understanding human mobility patterns has led many studies to examine their spatial-temporal scaling laws. These studies mainly reveal that human travel can be highly non-homogeneous with power-law scaling distributions of…

Physics and Society · Physics 2021-10-14 Xiaoyan Feng , Huijun Sun , Bnaya Gross , Jianjun Wu , Daqing Li , Xin Yang , Dong Zhou , Ziyou Gao , Shlomo Havlin

Getting good statistical models of traffic on network links is a well-known, often-studied problem. A lot of attention has been given to correlation patterns and flow duration. The distribution of the amount of traffic per unit time is an…

Networking and Internet Architecture · Computer Science 2019-02-12 Mohammed Alasmar , George Parisis , Richard G. Clegg , Nickolay Zakhleniuk

Discovering human mobility patterns with geo-location data collected from smartphone users has been a hot research topic in recent years. In this paper, we attempt to discover daily mobile patterns based on GPS data. We view this problem…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-07-02 Weizhu Qian , Fabrice Lauri , Franck Gechter

We present the fundamentals of a measure transport approach to sampling. The idea is to construct a deterministic coupling---i.e., a transport map---between a complex "target" probability measure of interest and a simpler reference measure.…

Computation · Statistics 2017-12-27 Youssef Marzouk , Tarek Moselhy , Matthew Parno , Alessio Spantini

Access to quality travel time information for roads in a road network has become increasingly important with the rising demand for real-time travel time estimation for paths within road networks. In the context of the Danish road network…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-03-02 Jakob Meldgaard Kjær , Lasse Kristensen , Mads Alberg Christensen

Transport demand is highly dependent on supply, especially for shared transport services where availability is often limited. As observed demand cannot be higher than available supply, historical transport data typically represents a…