Related papers: Beyond just "flattening the curve": Optimal contro…
A model-based signal processing framework is proposed for pandemic trend forecasting and control, by using non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPI) at regional and country levels worldwide. The control objective is to prescribe quantifiable…
During decades, mathematical models have been used to predict the behavior of physical and biologic systems, and to define strategies aiming the minimization of the effects regarding different types of diseases. In the present days, the…
Combating an epidemic entails finding a plan that describes when and how to apply different interventions, such as mask-wearing mandates, vaccinations, school or workplace closures. An optimal plan will curb an epidemic with minimal loss of…
Optimal curing strategy of suppressing competing epidemics spreading over complex networks is a critical issue. In this paper, we first establish a framework to capture the coupling between two epidemics, and then analyze the system's…
Non-pharmacological interventions (NPIs), and in particular social distancing, in conjunction with the advent of effective vaccines at the end of 2020, aspired for the development of a protective immunity shield against the spread of…
This study investigates the influence of different types of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) on epidemic progression using SIR compartmental models. We analyze the optimization of two distinct targets: the final epidemic size and the…
Motivated by the increasing number of COVID-19 cases that have been observed in many countries after the vaccination and relaxation of non-pharmaceutical interventions, we propose a mathematical model on time-varying networks for the spread…
We present a control framework for stochastic compartmental models in epidemiology. In this framework, rather than directly controlling the stochastic system, we perform optimal control of an associated Fokker-Planck equation, with the goal…
During pandemic events, strategies such as social distancing can be fundamental to curb viral spreading. Such actions can reduce the number of simultaneous infections and mitigate the disease spreading, which is relevant to the risk of a…
Social distancing and lockdown are the two main non-pharmaceutical interventions being used by the UK government to contain and control the COVID-19 epidemic; these are being applied uniformly across the entire country, even though the…
The paper considers the problems of optimal vaccination control in the classical SIR model under constraints on the resource capabilities of the insurance medical system, in particular under constraints on the possible absolute rate of…
This study presents a mathematical model for optimal vaccination strategies in interconnected metropolitan areas, considering commuting patterns. It is a compartmental model with a vaccination rate for each city, acting as a control…
We approach the development of models and control strategies of susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) epidemic processes from the perspective of marked temporal point processes and stochastic optimal control of stochastic differential…
This paper proposes a feedback design that effectively copes with uncertainties for reliable epidemic monitoring and control. There are several optimization-based methods to estimate the parameters of an epidemic model by utilizing past…
In this paper we make the first steps to bridge the gap between classic control theory and modern, network-based epidemic models. In particular, we apply nonlinear model predictive control (NMPC) to a pairwise ODE model which we use to…
We consider the low-prevalence linearized SEIR epidemic model for a society that has resolved to keep future infections low in anticipation of a vaccine. The society can vary its amount of potentially-infection-spreading activity over time,…
This paper is concerned with the well-posedness and optimal control problem of a reaction-diffusion system for an epidemic Susceptible-Infected-Recovered-Susceptible (SIRS) mathematical model in which the dynamics develops in a spatially…
Many of the control policies that were put into place during the Covid-19 pandemic had a common goal: to flatten the curve of the number of infected people so that its peak remains under a critical threshold. This letter considers the…
This paper combines a canonical epidemiology model of disease dynamics with government policy of lockdown and testing, and agents' decision to social distance in order to avoid getting infected. The model is calibrated with data on deaths…
Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) are crucial for controlling pandemics, but existing research often overlooks the heterogeneity of individual behavior, which can lead to inaccurate evaluations of the effectiveness of strategies. In…