Related papers: A new method for life table and life expectancy ca…
Following the recent publication of our book on Exploring the Health State of a Population by Dynamic Modeling Methods in The Springer Series on Demographic Methods and Population Analysis (DOI 10.1007/978-3-319-65142-2) we provide this…
In this paper a new lifetime distribution which is obtained by compounding Lindley and geometric distributions, named Lindley-geometric (LG) distribution, is introduced. Several properties of the new distribution such as density, failure…
In epidemiological or demographic studies, with variable age at onset, a typical quantity of interest is the incidence of a disease (for example the cancer incidence). In these studies, the individuals are usually highly heterogeneous in…
The iterative random subdivision of rectangles is used as a generation model of networks in physics, computer science, and urban planning. However, these researches were independent. We consider some relations in them, and derive…
A phylogenetic birth-and-death model is a probabilistic graphical model for a so-called phylogenetic profile, i.e., the size distribution for a homolog gene family at the terminal nodes of a phylogeny. Profile datasets are used in…
In this article, a model is proposed using Bayesian techniques to account for the high correlation between many observed set of contingency tables. In many real life data this high correlation is encountered. Simulation studies are also…
The Gompertz law of mortality quantitatively describes the mortality rate of humans and almost all multicellular animals. However, its underlying kinetic mechanism is unclear. The Gompertz law cannot explain the effect of temperature on…
The aim of this paper is to propose a realistic and operational model to quantify the systematic risk of mortality included in an engagement of retirement. The model presented is built on the basis of model of Lee-Carter. The stochastic…
BACKGROUND There is an increasing demand for high quality subnational estimates of under-five mortality. In low and middle income countries, where the burden of under-five mortality is concentrated, vital registration is often lacking and…
The analysis of the demographic transition of the past century and a half, using both empirical data and mathematical models, has rendered a wealth of well-established facts, including the dramatic increases in life expectancy. Despite…
Life expectancy is a fundamental indicator of population health and socio-economic well-being, yet accurately forecasting it remains challenging due to the interplay of demographic, environmental, and healthcare factors. This study…
The mean past lifetime (MPL) is an important tool in reliability and survival analysis for measuring the average time elapsed since the occurrence of an event, under the condition that the event has occurred before a specific time $t>0$.…
In this paper, we introduce a general numerical method to approximate the reproduction numbers of a large class of multi-group, age-structured, population models with a finite age span. To provide complete flexibility in the definition of…
Risk prediction is central to both clinical medicine and public health. While many machine learning models have been developed to predict mortality, they are rarely applied in the clinical literature, where classification tasks typically…
Conventional statistics begins with a model, and assigns a likelihood of obtaining any particular set of data. The opposite approach, beginning with the data and assigning a likelihood to any particular model, is explored here for the case…
In research policy, effective measures that lead to improvements in the generation of knowledge must be based on reliable methods of research assessment, but for many countries and institutions this is not the case. Publication and citation…
It is sometimes asserted that the rapidity of biogenesis on Earth suggests that life is common in the Universe. We critically examine the assumptions inherent in this argument. Using a lottery model for biogenesis in the Universe, we…
Predicting mortality-related outcomes from images offers the prospect of accessible, noninvasive, and scalable health screening. We present a method that leverages pretrained vision transformer foundation models to estimate remaining…
In this paper, we introduce a new distribution generated by Lindley random variable which offers a more flexible model for modelling lifetime data. Various statistical properties like distribution function, survival function, moments,…
Recently we developed a new framework in Hirz et al (2015) to model stochastic mortality using extended CreditRisk$^+$ methodology which is very different from traditional time series methods used for mortality modelling previously. In this…