Related papers: A new method for life table and life expectancy ca…
Predicting the risk of death for chronic patients is highly valuable for informed medical decision-making. This paper proposes a general framework for dynamic prediction of the risk of death of a patient given her hospitalization history,…
This article presents a new class of generalized transmuted lifetime distributions which includes a large number of lifetime distributions as sub-family. Several important mathematical quantities such as density function, distribution…
Model averaging combines forecasts obtained from a range of models, and it often produces more accurate forecasts than a forecast from a single model. The crucial part of forecast accuracy improvement in using the model averaging lies in…
The original version of Bayesian reconstruction, a method for estimating age-specific fertility, mortality, migration and population counts of the recent past with uncertainty, produced estimates for female-only populations. Here we show…
Objective: Cause-of-death distributions are important for prioritising interventions. We estimated proportions, risks, and numbers of deaths (with uncertainty) for programme-relevant causes of neonatal death for 194 countries for 2000-2013,…
Identifying optimal medical treatments to improve survival has long been a critical goal of pharmacoepidemiology. Traditionally, we use an average treatment effect measure to compare outcomes between treatment plans. However, new methods…
This paper considers the problem of forecasting mortality rates. A large number of models have already been proposed for this task, but they generally have the disadvantage of either estimating the model in a two-step process, possibly…
We calculate the density and expectation for the number of lineages in a reconstructed tree with $n$ extant species. This is done with conditioning on the age of the tree as well as with assuming a uniform prior for the age of the tree.
Preterm births occur at an alarming rate of 10-15%. Preemies have a higher risk of infant mortality, developmental retardation and long-term disabilities. Predicting preterm birth is difficult, even for the most experienced clinicians. The…
The statistical estimation of phylogenies is always associated with uncertainty, and accommodating this uncertainty is an important component of modern phylogenetic comparative analysis. The birth-death polytomy resolver is a method of…
Recently, we have shown that the age-specific prevalence of a disease can be related to the transition rates in the illness-death model via a partial differential equation (PDE). In case of a chronic disease, we show that the PDE can be…
The concept of random deaths in a computational model for population dynamics is critically examined. We claim that it is just an artifact, albeit useful, of computational models to limit the size of the populations and has no biological…
The fractional birth and the fractional death processes are more desirable in practice than their classical counterparts as they naturally provide greater flexibility in modeling growing and decreasing systems. In this paper, we propose…
We discuss the problem of the large discrepancy between the observed lifetime ratio of $\Lambda_b$ to $B_d$ and the theoretical prediction obtained by the heavy quark effective theory. A new possibility of solving this problem is proposed…
Age-specific mortality rates are often disaggregated by different attributes, such as sex, state and ethnicity. Forecasting age-specific mortality rates at the national and sub-national levels plays an important role in developing social…
This paper presents Living Globe, an application for visualization of demo- graphic data supporting the temporal comparison of data from several countries represented on a 3D globe. Living Globe allows the visual exploration of the…
The significance of mortality modeling extends across multiple research areas, ranging from life insurance valuation to optimal lifetime decision-making. Existing approaches, such as mortality laws and factor-based models, often fall short…
When modeling sub-national mortality rates, we should consider three features: (1) how to incorporate any possible correlation among sub-populations to potentially improve forecast accuracy through multi-population joint modeling; (2) how…
We present a model for biological aging that considers the number of individuals whose (inherited) genetic charge determines the maximum age for death: each individual may die before that age due to some external factor, but never after…
We first review existing sequential methods for estimating a binomial proportion. Afterward, we propose a new family of group sequential sampling schemes for estimating a binomial proportion with prescribed margin of error and confidence…