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We investigate shrinkage priors for constructing Bayesian predictive distributions. It is shown that there exist shrinkage predictive distributions asymptotically dominating Bayesian predictive distributions based on the Jeffreys prior or…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-06-13 Fumiyasu Komaki

Inference from limited data requires a notion of measure on parameter space, most explicit in the Bayesian framework as a prior. Here we demonstrate that Jeffreys prior, the best-known uninformative choice, introduces enormous bias when…

Other Statistics · Statistics 2023-04-03 Michael C. Abbott , Benjamin B. Machta

This paper deals with Bayesian inference of a mixture of Gaussian distributions. A novel formulation of the mixture model is introduced, which includes the prior constraint that each Gaussian component is always assigned a minimal number of…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-05-21 Colin J. Stoneking

In this paper we leverage on probability over Riemannian manifolds to rethink the interpretation of priors and posteriors in Bayesian inference. The main mindshift is to move away from the idea that "a prior distribution establishes a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-06-03 Jesus Cerquides

We introduce a novel Bayesian estimator for the class proportion in an unlabeled dataset, based on the targeted learning framework. Our procedure requires the specification of a prior (and outputs a posterior) only for the target of…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-11-26 Iván Díaz , Oleksander Savenkov , Hooman Kamel

A key sticking point of Bayesian analysis is the choice of prior distribution, and there is a vast literature on potential defaults including uniform priors, Jeffreys' priors, reference priors, maximum entropy priors, and weakly informative…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-11-22 Andrew Gelman , Daniel Simpson , Michael Betancourt

The practice of employing empirical likelihood (EL) components in place of parametric likelihood functions in the construction of Bayesian-type procedures has been well-addressed in the modern statistical literature. We rigorously derive…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-08-21 Albert Vexler , Li Zou , Alan D. Hutson

In this paper, we investigate the Fisher-Rao geometry of the two-parameter family of Pareto distribution. We prove that its geometrical structure is isometric to the Poincar\'e upper half-plane model, and then study the corresponding…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-03-25 Mingming Li , Huafei Sun , Linyu Peng

A bivariate distribution with continuous margins can be uniquely decomposed via a copula and its marginal distributions. We consider the problem of estimating the copula function and adopt a Bayesian approach. On the space of copula…

Methodology · Statistics 2012-07-04 Simon Guillotte , François Perron

We propose a measure of the impact of any two choices of prior distributions by quantifying the Wasserstein distance between the respective resulting posterior distributions at any fixed sample size. We illustrate this measure on the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-03-02 Fatemeh Ghaderinezhad , Christophe Ley

Power priors are used for incorporating historical data in Bayesian analyses by taking the likelihood of the historical data raised to the power $\alpha$ as the prior distribution for the model parameters. The power parameter $\alpha$ is…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-06-27 Samuel Pawel , Frederik Aust , Leonhard Held , Eric-Jan Wagenmakers

Simultaneous predictive distributions for independent Poisson observables are investigated. A class of improper prior distributions for Poisson means is introduced. The Bayesian predictive distributions based on priors from the introduced…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-06-13 Fumiyasu Komaki

The problem of estimating a parametric or nonparametric regression function in a model with normal errors is considered. For this purpose, a novel objective prior for the regression function is proposed, defined as the distribution…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-12-13 Wicher Bergsma

A new methodology for model determination in decomposable graphical Gaussian models is developed. The Bayesian paradigm is used and, for each given graph, a hyper inverse Wishart prior distribution on the covariance matrix is considered.…

Computation · Statistics 2015-03-13 Sophie Donnet , Jean-Michel Marin

The interpretation of data in terms of multi-parameter models of new physics, using the Bayesian approach, requires the construction of multi-parameter priors. We propose a construction that uses elements of Bayesian reference analysis. Our…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2011-08-03 Maurizio Pierini , Harrison B. Prosper , Sezen Sekmen , Maria Spiropulu

Inference and estimation are fundamental in statistics, system identification, and machine learning. When prior knowledge about the system is available, Bayesian analysis provides a natural framework for encoding it through a prior…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-08-29 Yibo Shi , Braghadeesh Lakshminarayanan , Cristian R. Rojas

Objective priors for sequential experiments are considered. Common priors, such as the Jeffreys prior and the reference prior, will typically depend on the stopping rule used for the sequential experiment. New expressions for reference…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2008-12-18 Dongchu Sun , James O. Berger

We propose to use L\'evy {\alpha}-stable distributions for constructing priors for Bayesian inverse problems. The construction is based on Markov fields with stable-distributed increments. Special cases include the Cauchy and Gaussian…

Computation · Statistics 2023-06-26 Jarkko Suuronen , Tomás Soto , Neil K. Chada , Lassi Roininen

The Yule--Simon distribution has been out of the radar of the Bayesian community, so far. In this note, we propose an explicit Gibbs sampling scheme when a Gamma prior is chosen for the shape parameter. The performance of the algorithm is…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-07-04 Fabrizio Leisen , Luca Rossini , Cristiano Villa

It is shown that the first-order term of the asymptotic bias of the posterior mean is removed by a suitable choice of a prior density. In regular statistical models including exponential families, and linear and logistic regression models,…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-10-22 Miyata Yoichi , Yanagimoto Takemi