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Massive growth in human mobility has dramatically increased the risk and rate of pandemic spread. Macro-level descriptors of the topology of the World Airline Network (WAN) explains middle and late stage dynamics of pandemic spread mediated…
Current understanding of the critical outbreak condition on temporal networks relies on approximations (time scale separation, discretization) that may bias the results. We propose a theoretical framework to compute the epidemic threshold…
Since its first formulations almost a century ago, mathematical models for disease spreading contributed to understand, evaluate and control the epidemic processes.They promoted a dramatic change in how epidemiologists thought of the…
The time variation of contacts in a networked system may fundamentally alter the properties of spreading processes and affect the condition for large-scale propagation, as encoded in the epidemic threshold. Despite the great interest in the…
The structure of complex networks has long been understood to play a role in transmission and spreading phenomena on a graph. This behavior is difficult to model analytically and is most often modeled numerically. Such networks form an…
In recent years the research community has accumulated overwhelming evidence for the emergence of complex and heterogeneous connectivity patterns in a wide range of biological and sociotechnical systems. The complex properties of real-world…
Many real networks are not isolated from each other but form networks of networks, often interrelated in non trivial ways. Here, we analyze an epidemic spreading process taking place on top of two interconnected complex networks. We develop…
Epidemiological contact network models have emerged as an important tool in understanding and predicting the spread of infectious disease, due to their capacity to engage individual heterogeneity that may underlie essential dynamics of a…
We consider a model for an epidemic in a population that occupies geographically distinct locations. The disease is spread within subpopulations by contacts between infective and susceptible individuals, and is spread between subpopulations…
Models of epidemic spreading on complex networks have attracted great attention among researchers in physics, mathematics, and epidemiology due to their success in predicting and controlling scenarios of epidemic spreading in real-world…
The epidemic threshold of a spreading process indicates the condition for the occurrence of the wide spreading regime, thus representing a predictor of the network vulnerability to the epidemic. Such threshold depends on the natural history…
Epidemics are emergent phenomena depending on the epidemiological characteristics of pathogens and the interaction and movement of people. Public transit systems have provided much important information about the movement of people, but…
The dynamics of contact networks and epidemics of infectious diseases often occur on comparable time scales. Ignoring one of these time scales may provide an incomplete understanding of the population dynamics of the infection process. We…
The rapid worldwide spread of the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) demonstrated the potential threat an infectious disease poses in a closely interconnected and interdependent world. Here we introduce a probabilistic model which…
One of the major issues in the theoretical modeling of epidemic spreading is the development of methods to control the transmission of an infectious agent. Human behavior plays a fundamental role in the spreading dynamics and can be used to…
Epidemic disease spreading is conventionally often modelled and analyzed by means of rate and diffusion equations, following the paradigms of well-controlled chemical reactions and diffusive dynamics in a test tube. Yet, serious worries…
A common theme among the proposed models for network epidemics is the assumption that the propagating object, i.e., a virus or a piece of information, is transferred across the nodes without going through any modification or evolution.…
A simple, but ``classical``, stochastic model for epidemic spread in a finite, but large, population is studied. The progress of the epidemic can be divided into three different phases that requires different tools to analyse. Initially the…
Among the realistic ingredients to be considered in the computational modeling of infectious diseases, human mobility represents a crucial challenge both on the theoretical side and in view of the limited availability of empirical data. In…
To understand the contact patterns of a population -- who is in contact with whom, and when the contacts happen -- is crucial for modeling outbreaks of infectious disease. Traditional theoretical epidemiology assumes that any individual can…