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Numerical evaluation of performance measures in heavy-tailed risk models is an important and challenging problem. In this paper, we construct very accurate approximations of such performance measures that provide small absolute and relative…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-04-28 Eleni Vatamidou , Ivo J. B. F. Adan , Maria Vlasiou , Bert Zwart

We study the maximum of the random assignment process on rectangular matrices. We derive first-order asymptotics for the expected maximum, prove a law of large numbers under mild tail assumptions, and obtain exponential upper bounds for the…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-09-23 Timofey Moskalenko

We study the random conductance model on the lattice $\Z^d$, i.e. we consider a linear, finite-difference, divergence-form operator with random conductances $a$. We allow the conductances $a$ to be unbounded and degenerate. Assuming the…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-05-20 Antoine Gloria , Siguang Qi

The study of loss function distributions is critical to characterize a model's behaviour on a given machine learning problem. For example, while the quality of a model is commonly determined by the average loss assessed on a testing set,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-06-06 Etrit Haxholli , Marco Lorenzi

As a first step toward a characterization of the limiting extremal process of branching Brownian motion, we proved in a recent work [Comm. Pure Appl. Math. 64 (2011) 1647-1676] that, in the limit of large time $t$, extremal particles…

Probability · Mathematics 2012-09-25 Louis-Pierre Arguin , Anton Bovier , Nicola Kistler

Considered are the large $N$, or large intensity, forms of the distribution of the length of the longest increasing subsequences for various models. Earlier work has established that after centring and scaling, the limit laws for these…

Mathematical Physics · Physics 2022-06-09 Peter J. Forrester , Anthony Mays

We introduce and study a model of directed last-passage percolation in planar layered environment. This environment is represented by an array of random exponential clocks arranged in blocks, for each block the average waiting times depend…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-04-01 Sergey Berezin , Eugene Strahov

The problem of sums of independent, identically distributed random variables with stretched-exponential tails exhibits a dynamical phase transition and has recently reemerged in the context of active transport and condensation phenomena. We…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2026-05-11 Alberto Bassanoni , Omer Hamdi

We establish maximal concentration bounds for the iterates generated by stochastic approximation algorithms with general step sizes, where the noise has a finite-state Markovian component plus a Martingale-difference component. When the…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-05-21 Shubhada Agrawal , Siva Theja Maguluri , Martin Zubeldia

We consider extremal processes and random walks generated by heavy-tailed random vectors taking values in $\mathbb{R}^d$ endowed with the $\ell_p$ metric. We establish limit theorems for the associated paths in the triangular array setting…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-05-06 Bochen Jin , Ilya Molchanov

For exactly solvable models of planar last passage percolation, it is known that geodesics of length $n$ exhibit transversal fluctuations at scale $n^{2/3}$ and matching (up to exponents) upper and lower bounds for the tail probabilities…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-11-02 Pranay Agarwal

We prove large deviation results for the position of the rightmost particle, denoted by $M_n$, in a one-dimensional branching random walk in a case when Cram\'er's condition is not satisfied. More precisely we consider step size…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-06-17 Piotr Dyszewski , Nina Gantert , Thomas Höfelsauer

Low-rank tensor models are widely used in statistics. However, most existing methods rely heavily on the assumption that data follows a sub-Gaussian distribution. To address the challenges associated with heavy-tailed distributions…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-16 Xiaoyu Zhang , Di Wang , Guodong Li , Defeng Sun

This article concerns the performance limits of strictly causal state estimation for linear systems with fixed, but uncertain, parameters belonging to a finite set. In particular, we provide upper and lower bounds on the smallest achievable…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2024-03-29 Olle Kjellqvist

We obtain large and moderate deviation estimates, as well as concentration inequalities, for a class of nonuniformly expanding maps with stretched exponential decay of correlations. In the large deviation regime, we also exhibit examples…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-01-26 C Cuny , J Dedecker , F Merlevède

The term "moderate deviations" is often used in the literature to mean a class of large deviation principles that, in some sense, fill the gap between a convergence in probability to zero (governed by a large deviation principle) and a weak…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-02-01 Luisa Beghin , Claudio Macci

We study clustering of the extremes in a stationary sequence with subexponential tails in the maximum domain of attraction of the Gumbel We obtain functional limit theorems in the space of random sup-measures and in the space $D(0,\infty)$.…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-03-12 Zaoli Chen , Gennady Samorodnitsky

Sums of independent, bounded random variables concentrate around their expectation approximately as well a Gaussian of the same variance. Well known results of this form include the Bernstein, Hoeffding, and Chernoff inequalities and many…

Discrete Mathematics · Computer Science 2017-04-25 Thomas Steinke , Jonathan Ullman

We present and analyze a momentum-based gradient method for training linear classifiers with an exponentially-tailed loss (e.g., the exponential or logistic loss), which maximizes the classification margin on separable data at a rate of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-08-24 Ziwei Ji , Nathan Srebro , Matus Telgarsky

We study the problem of bounding path-dependent expectations (within any finite time horizon $d$) over the class of discrete-time martingales whose marginal distributions lie within a prescribed tolerance of a given collection of benchmark…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-12-01 Zhengqing Zhou , Jose Blanchet , Peter W. Glynn