Related papers: Right-tail moderate deviations in the exponential …
A simple lemma bounds $\mathrm{s.d.}(T)/\mathbb{E} T$ for hitting times $T$ in Markov chains with a certain strong monotonicity property. We show how this lemma may be applied to several increasing set-valued processes. Our main result…
We consider the East model in $\mathbb Z^d$, an example of a kinetically constrained interacting particle system with oriented constraints, together with one of its natural variant. Under any ergodic boundary condition it is known that the…
Given a branching random walk, let $M_n$ be the minimum position of any member of the $n$th generation. We calculate $\mathbf{E}M_n$ to within O(1) and prove exponential tail bounds for $\mathbf{P}\{|M_n-\mathbf{E}M_n|>x\}$, under quite…
We re-consider Leadbetter's extremal index for stationary sequences. It has interpretation as reciprocal of the expected size of an extremal cluster above high thresholds. We focus on heavy-tailed time series, in particular on regularly…
In this paper, we investigate the potential of the age-dependent random connection model (ADRCM) with the aim of representing higher-order networks. A key contribution of our work are probabilistic limit results in large domains. More…
Standard statistical analysis is unable to provide reliable confidence intervals on expectation values of probability distributions that do not satisfy the conditions of the central limit theorem. We present a regression-based estimator of…
We classify the possible behaviors of a class of one-dimensional stochastic recurrent growth models. In our main result, we obtain nearly optimal bounds for the tail of hitting times of some compact sets. If the process is an aperiodic…
Convergence of Extremum Seeking (ES) algorithms has been established in the limit of small gains. Using averaging theory and contraction analysis, we propose a framework for computing explicit bounds on the departure of the ES scheme from…
In this paper we study stationary last passage percolation (LPP) in half-space geometry. We determine the limiting distribution of the last passage time in a critical window close to the origin. The result is a new two-parameter family of…
In this paper, we prove exponential tail bounds for canonical (or degenerate) $U$-statistics and $U$-processes under exponential-type tail assumptions on the kernels. Most of the existing results in the relevant literature often assume…
We consider the precise upper large deviations estimates for the maximal displacement of a branching random walk. In addition, we obtain a description of the extremal process of the branching random walk conditioned on this large deviations…
This paper describes the construction of a lower bound for the tails of general random variables, using solely knowledge of their moment generating function. The tilting procedure used allows for the construction of lower bounds that are…
In this contribution we discuss the relation between Pickands-type constants defined for certain Brown-Resnick stationary process $W(t),t\in R$ as $$\mathcal{H}_W^\delta= \lim_{T\to\infty} T^{-1} E{ \left(\sup_{t\in \delta Z \cap [0,T]}…
We establish sharp tail asymptotics for component-wise extreme values of bivariate Gaussian random vectors with arbitrary correlation between the components. We consider two scaling regimes for the tail event in which we demonstrate the…
Here we prove critical exponents for Random Connections Models (RCMs) with random marks. The vertices are given by a marked Poisson point process on $\mathbb{R}^d$ and an edge exists between any pair of vertices independently with a…
At high levels, the asymptotic distribution of a stationary, regularly varying Markov chain is conveniently given by its tail process. The latter takes the form of a geometric random walk, the increment distribution depending on the sign of…
We build optimal exponential bounds for the probabilities of large deviations of sums \sum_{k=1}^nf(X_k) where (X_k) is a finite reversible Markov chain and f is an arbitrary bounded function. These bounds depend only on the stationary mean…
In the "stochastic $\delta N$ formalism", the statistics of the inflationary density perturbation are obtained from the first passage distribution of a stochastic process. We develop a general framework in which to evaluate the rare tail of…
This work introduces the minimax Laplace transform method, a modification of the cumulant-based matrix Laplace transform method developed in "User-friendly tail bounds for sums of random matrices" (arXiv:1004.4389v6) that yields both upper…
The 1+1 dimensional corner growth model with exponential weights is a centrally important exactly solvable model in the Kardar-Parisi-Zhang class of statistical mechanical models. While significant progress has been made on the fluctuations…