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In the present paper, our goal is to establish a framework for the mathematical modelling and the analysis of the spread of an epidemic in a large population commuting regularly, typically along a time-periodic pattern, as is roughly…
The spreading of virus infection is here simulated over artificial human networks. Here, the real-space urban life of people is modeled as a scale-free network with constraints. A scale-free network has been adopted for modeling on-line…
Disease transmission is studied through disciplines like epidemiology, applied mathematics, and statistics. Mathematical simulation models for transmission have implications in solving public and personal health challenges. The SIR model…
Aim of this paper is the description of a new tool to support institutions in the implementation of targeted countermeasures, based on quantitative and multi-scale elements, for the fight and prevention of emergencies, such as the current…
Accurate numbers are needed to understand and predict viral dynamics. Curation of high-quality literature values for the infectious period duration or household secondary attack rate, for example, is especially pressing currently because…
The effect of public health interventions on an epidemic are often estimated by adding the intervention to epidemic models. During the Covid-19 epidemic, numerous papers used such methods for making scenario predictions. The majority of…
With more than 1.7 million COVID-19 deaths, identifying effective measures to prevent COVID-19 is a top priority. We developed a mathematical model to simulate the COVID-19 pandemic with digital contact tracing and testing strategies. The…
Non-pharmaceutical interventions, such as contact tracing and social distancing, are critical for controlling epidemic outbreaks, yet their dynamic interactions remain underexplored. We introduce a probabilistic framework to analyze the…
Successful predictive modeling of epidemics requires an understanding of the implicit feedback control strategies which are implemented by populations to modulate the spread of contagion. While this task of capturing endogenous behavior can…
We propose an easy-to-use adjustment estimator for the effect of a treatment based on observational data from a single (social) network of units. The approach allows for interactions among units within the network, called interference, and…
The COVID-19 pandemic reignited debate on the U.S. Phillips curve. Using MSA-level panel data (2001-2024), we employ a Two-Stage Least Squares (2SLS) instrumental variable strategy with a shift-share instrument to estimate core non-tradable…
COVID-19 is a global epidemic. Till now, there is no remedy for this epidemic. However, isolation and social distancing are seemed to be effective preventive measures to control this pandemic. Therefore, in this paper, an optimization…
The implementation of governmental Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions (NPIs) has been the primary means of controlling the spread of the COVID-19 disease. The intended effect of these NPIs has been to reduce mobility. A strong reduction in…
By exploiting the convexity of the two-particle-irreducible (2PI) effective action, we describe a procedure for extracting n-point vertex functions. This procedure is developed within the context of a zero-dimensional "quantum field theory"…
We analyze, on a random graph, a diffusive strategic dynamics with pairwise interactions, where nor Glauber prescription, neither detailed balance hold. We observe numerically that such a dynamics reaches a well defined steady state that…
The COVID-19 pandemic created a deluge of questionable and contradictory scientific claims about drug efficacy -- an "infodemic" with lasting consequences for science and society. In this work, we argue that NLP models can help domain…
The COronaVIrus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic that has had the world in its grip from the beginning of 2020, has resulted in an unprecedented level of public interest and media attention on the field of mathematical epidemiology. Ever…
During the recent pandemic, a rise in COVID-19 cases was followed by a decline in influenza. In the absence of cross-immunity, a potential explanation for the observed pattern is behavioral: non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) designed…
Researchers are often interested in evaluating the impact of a policy on the entire (or specific parts of the) distribution of the outcome of interest. In this paper, I provide a method to recover the whole distribution of the untreated…
Many public health threats exist, motivating the need to find optimal intervention strategies. Given the stochastic nature of the threats (e.g., the spread of pandemic influenza, the occurrence of drug overdoses, and the prevalence of…