Related papers: Modeling strict age-targeted mitigation strategies…
Objectives. Public health officials need tools to assist with anticipating the healthcare resources required to confront the SARS-COV-2 pandemic. We built a modeling tool to aid practicing public health officials with estimating healthcare…
In real social networks, person-to-person interactions are known to be heterogeneous, which can affect the way a disease spreads through a population, reaches a tipping point in the fraction of infected individuals, and becomes an epidemic.…
Effective strategies of vaccine prioritization are essential to mitigate the impacts of severe infectious diseases. We investigate the role of infection fatality ratio (IFR) and social contact matrices on vaccination prioritization using a…
As the COVID-19 pandemic continues to ravage the world, it is of critical significance to provide a timely risk prediction of the COVID-19 in multi-level. To implement it and evaluate the public health policies, we develop a framework with…
The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic radically impacts our lives, while the transmission/infection and recovery dynamics of COVID-19 remain obscure. A time-dependent Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious, and Recovered (SEIR) model…
The main focus of this chapter is on public health control strategies which are currently the main way to mitigate COVID-19 pandemic. We introduce and compare compartmental models of increasing complexity for COVID-19 transmission to…
A mathematical model was developed describing the dynamic of the COVID-19 virus over a population considering that the infected can either be symptomatic or not. The model was calibrated using data on the confirmed cases and death from…
The widespread, and in many countries unprecedented, use of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) during the COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the need for mathematical models which can estimate the impact of these measures while…
Motivated by the ongoing pandemic COVID-19, we propose a closed-loop framework that combines inference from testing data, learning the parameters of the dynamics and optimal resource allocation for controlling the spread of the…
We analytically study the SEIR (Susceptible Exposed Infectious Removed) epidemic model. The aim is to provide simple analytical expressions for the peak and asymptotic values and their characteristic times of the populations affected by the…
This paper studies if and to which extent COVID-19 epidemics can be controlled by authorities taking decisions on public health measures on the basis of daily reports of swab test results, active cases and total cases. A suitably simplified…
The purpose of this work is to give a contribution to the understanding of the COVID-19 contagion in Italy. To this end, we developed a modified Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model for the contagion, and we used official data of the…
The COVID-19 pandemic began over two years ago, yet schools, businesses, and other organizations are still struggling to keep the risk of disease outbreak low while returning to (near) normal functionality. Observations from these past…
The COVID-19 disease has forced countries to make a considerable collaborative effort between scientists and governments to provide indicators to suitable follow-up the pandemic's consequences. Mathematical modeling plays a crucial role in…
We model further development of the COVID-19 epidemic in the UK given the current data and assuming different scenarios of handling the epidemic. In this research, we further extend the stochastic model suggested in \cite{us} and…
In this paper we elaborate on homogeneous and heterogeneous SIR-type epidemiological models. We find an unexpected correspondence between the epidemic trajectory of a transmissible disease in a homogeneous SIR-type model and radial null…
A reasonable prediction of infectious diseases transmission process under different disease control strategies is an important reference point for policy makers. Here we established a dynamic transmission model via Python and realized…
The rapid spread of the Coronavirus (COVID-19) confronts policy makers with the problem of measuring the effectiveness of containment strategies, balancing public health considerations with the economic costs of social distancing measures.…
As the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has shown profound effects on public health and the economy worldwide, it becomes crucial to assess the impact on the virus transmission and develop effective strategies to address the challenge. A…
This article describes a simple Susceptible Infected Recovered (SIR) model fitting with COVID-19 data for the month of march 2020 in New York (NY) state. The model is a classical SIR, but is non-autonomous; the rate of susceptible people…