Related papers: On the problem of comparing Covid-19 fatality rate…
The study of mortality and the calculation of excess deaths is a fundamental tool for understanding the effect of epidemics / pandemics and the seasonal cycles of endemic / epidemic diseases such as influenza, which is of great importance…
The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has become a public health emergency of international concern affecting 201 countries and territories around the globe. As of April 4, 2020, it has caused a pandemic outbreak with more than 11,16,643…
The Covid-19 pandemic still causes severe impacts on society and the economy. This paper studies excess mortality during the pandemic years 2020 and 2021 in Germany empirically with a special focus on the life insurer's perspective. Our…
Disadvantaged groups around the world have suffered and endured higher mortality during the current COVID-19 pandemic. This contrast disparity suggests that socioeconomic and health-related factors may drive inequality in disease outcome.…
The last two centuries have seen a significant increase in life expectancy. Although past trends suggest that mortality will continue to decline in the future, uncertainty and instability about the development is greatly increased due to…
Amid the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, whether COVID-19 patients with high risks can be recovered or not depends, to a large extent, on how early they will be treated appropriately before irreversible consequences are caused to the patients by…
During the unfolding of a crisis, it is crucial to determine its severity, yet access to reliable data is challenging. We investigate the relation between geolocated Tweet Intensity of initial COVID-19 related tweet at the beginning of the…
I critique a recent analysis (Miles, Stedman & Heald, 2020) of COVID-19 lockdown costs and benefits, focussing on the United Kingdom (UK). Miles et al. (2020) argue that the March-June UK lockdown was more costly than the benefit of lives…
In this paper we develop a predictive model for the spread of COVID-19 infection at a provincial (i.e. EU NUTS-3) level in Italy by using official data from the Italian Ministry of Health integrated with data extracted from daily official…
The emergence of an epidemic evokes the need to monitor its spread and assess and validate any mitigation measures enacted by governments and administrative bodies in real time. We present here a method to observe and quantify this spread…
The purpose of this study is to investigate the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on economic policy uncertainty in the US and the UK. The impact of the increase in COVID-19 cases and deaths in the country, and the increase in the number of…
The impact of mitigation or control measures on an epidemics can be estimated by fitting the parameters of a compartmental model to empirical data, and running the model forward with modified parameters that account for a specific measure.…
One of the key indicators used in tracking the evolution of an infectious disease isthe reproduction number. This quantity is usually computed using the reportednumber of cases, but ignoring that many more individuals may be infected…
COVID-19 is a new pandemic disease that is affecting almost every country with a negative impact on social life and economic activities. The number of infected and deceased patients continues to increase globally. Mathematical models can…
Transient local over-dry environment might be a contributor and an explanation for the observed asynchronous local rises in Covid-19 mortality. We propose that a habitat's air humidity negatively correlate with Covid-19 morbidity and…
Background: During 2021 several new variants of the SARS-CoV-2 virus appeared with both increased levels of transmissibility and virulence with respect to the original wild variant. The Delta (B.1.617.2) variation, first seen in India,…
Early assessments of the spreading rate of COVID-19 were subject to significant uncertainty, as expected with limited data and difficulties in case ascertainment, but more reliable inferences can now be made. Here, we estimate from European…
As COVID-19 is rapidly spreading across the globe, short-term modeling forecasts provide time-critical information for decisions on containment and mitigation strategies. A main challenge for short-term forecasts is the assessment of key…
We develop a minimalist compartmental model to study the impact of mobility restrictions in Italy during the Covid-19 outbreak. We show that an early lockdown shifts the epidemic in time, while that beyond a critical value of the lockdown…
The discovery of SARS-CoV-2, the responsible virus for the Covid-19 epidemic, has sparked a global health concern with many countries affected. Developing models that can interpret the epidemic and give common trend parameters are useful…