Related papers: On the problem of comparing Covid-19 fatality rate…

The global crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, in conjunction with the economic consequences and the collapse of health systems, has raised serious concerns in Europe, which is the most affected continent by the pandemic since it…

This paper compares and contrasts the spread and impact of COVID-19 in the three countries most heavily impacted by the pandemic: the United States (US), India and Brazil. All three of these countries have a federal structure, in which the…

The COVID-19 disease has forced countries to make a considerable collaborative effort between scientists and governments to provide indicators to suitable follow-up the pandemic's consequences. Mathematical modeling plays a crucial role in…

The most important features to assess the severity of an epidemic are its size and its timescale. We discuss these features in a systematic way in the context of SIR and SIR-type models. We investigate in detail how the size and timescale…

We analysed publicly available data on place of occurrence of COVID-19 deaths from national statistical agencies in the UK between March 9 2020 and February 28 2021. We introduce a modified Weibull model that describes the deaths due to…

In the wake of the COVID-19 virus outbreak, a brief phenomenological (descriptive, comparative) analysis of the dynamics of the disease spread among different countries is presented. Results indicate that the infection spread dynamics is…

The COVID-19 infection fatality rate (IFR) is the proportion of individuals infected with SARS-CoV-2 who subsequently die. As COVID-19 disproportionately affects older individuals, age-specific IFR estimates are imperative to facilitate…

In 2020, countries affected by the COVID-19 pandemic implemented various non-pharmaceutical interventions to contrast the spread of the virus and its impact on their healthcare systems and economies. Using Italian data at different…

A great issue of discussion of an infectious disease is its basic reproduction number R0, which provides an estimation of the contagiousness of the disease. When R0 > 1, the disease spread will potentially lead to an outbreak, such that of…

Given limited supply of approved vaccines and constrained medical resources, design of a vaccination strategy to control a pandemic is an economic problem. We use time-series and panel methods with real-world country-level data to estimate…

We point out an instantiation of Simpson's paradox in Covid-19 case fatality rates (CFRs): comparing a large-scale study from China (17 Feb) with early reports from Italy (9 Mar), we find that CFRs are lower in Italy for every age group,…

The COVID-19 pandemic considerably affects public health systems around the world. The lack of knowledge about the virus, the extension of this phenomenon, and the speed of the evolution of the infection are all factors that highlight the…

After COVID-19 was first reported in China at the end of 2019, it took only a few months for this local crisis to turn into a global pandemic with unprecedented disruptions of everyday life. However, at any moment in time the situation in…

In a recent work we introduced a novel method to compute the effective reproduction number $R_t$ and we applied it to describe the development of the COVID-19 outbreak in Italy. The study is based on the number of daily positive swabs as…

Progress of the COVID-19 pandemic was quantified, in the first instance, using the daily number of positive cases recorded by the national public health authorities. Averaged over a seven-day window, the daily incidence of COVID-19 in…

A large percentage of the deaths from COVID-19 occur among residents of long-term care facilities. There are two possible reasons for this phenomenon. First, the structural features of such settings may lead to death. Alternatively, it is…

We investigated the negative relationship between mortality and COVID-19 vaccination at ecological level, which has been established through clinical trials and other investigations at the individual level. We conducted an exploratory,…

In this paper, we continue development of the new epidemiological model HIT, which is suitable for analyzing and predicting the propagation of COVID-19 epidemics. This is a discrete-time model allowing a reconstruction of the dynamics of…

After the breakout of the disease caused by the new virus COVID-19, the mitigation stage has been reached in most of the countries in the world. During this stage, a more accurate data analysis of the daily reported cases and other…

An urgent problem in controlling COVID-19 spreading is to understand the role of undocumented infection. We develop a five-state model for COVID-19, taking into account the unique features of the novel coronavirus, with key parameters…