Related papers: COVID-19: Analytics Of Contagion On Inhomogeneous …
Case isolation, that is, detection and isolation of infected individuals in order to prevent spread, is a strategy to curb infectious disease epidemics. Here, we study the efficiency of a case isolation strategy subject to time delays in…
Based on the classical SIR model, we derive a simple modification for the dynamics of epidemics with a known incubation period of infection. The model is described by a system of integro-differential equations. Parameters of our model…
The metapopulation network model is effectively used to study the spatial spread of epidemics with individuals mobility. Considering the time-varying nature of individual activity and the preferences for attractive destinations in…
Throughout the course of an epidemic, the rate at which disease spreads varies with behavioral changes, the emergence of new disease variants, and the introduction of mitigation policies. Estimating such changes in transmission rates can…
There is a rich history of models for the interaction of a biological contagion like influenza with the spread of related information such as an influenza vaccination campaign. Recent work on the spread of interacting contagions on networks…
I study the spreading of infectious diseases on heterogeneous populations. I represent the population structure by a contact-graph where vertices represent agents and edges represent disease transmission channels among them. The population…
Modern Bayesian approaches and workflows emphasize in how simulation is important in the context of model developing. Simulation can help researchers understand how the model behaves in a controlled setting and can be used to stress the…
In the present work the spread of epidemic is studied over complex networks which are characterized by power law degree distribution of links and heterogeneous rate of disease transmission. The random allocation of epidemic transmission…
A model of reactive social distancing in epidemics is proposed, in which the infection rate changes with the number infected. The final-size equation for the total number that the epidemic will infect can be derived analytically, as can the…
A susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) model of multiple contagions on multilayer networks is developed to incorporate different spreading channels and disease mutations. The basic reproduction number for this model is estimated…
The Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible model is a canonical model for emerging disease outbreaks. Such outbreaks are naturally modeled as taking place on networks. A theoretical challenge in network epidemiology is the dynamic correlations…
The susceptible-infectious-recovered (SIR) model describes the evolution of three species of individuals which are subject to an infection and recovery mechanism. A susceptible $S$ can become infectious with an infection rate $\beta$ by an…
The SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus is the cause of the COVID-19 disease in humans. Like many coronaviruses, it can adapt to different hosts and evolve into different lineages. It is well-known that the major SARS-CoV-2 lineages are characterized by…
Infected individuals in some epidemics can remain asymptomatic while still carrying and transmitting the infection. These individuals contribute to the spread of the epidemic and pose a significant challenge to public health policies.…
We explore the emergence of persistent infection in a patch of population, where the disease progression of the individuals is given by the SIRS model and an individual becomes infected on contact with another infected individual. We…
Human to human transmissible infectious diseases spread in a population using human interactions as its transmission vector. The early stages of such an outbreak can be modeled by a graph whose edges encode these interactions between…
Infectious diseases are practically represented by models with multiple states and complex transition rules corresponding to, for example, birth, death, infection, recovery, disease progression, and quarantine. In addition, networks…
A model of interacting agents, following plausible behavioral rules into a world where the Covid-19 epidemic is affecting the actions of everyone. The model works with (i) infected agents categorized as symptomatic or asymptomatic and (ii)…
Transportation networks play a critical part in the spread of infectious diseases between populations. In this work, we define a networked susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered epidemic process with loss of immunity over time (SEIRS) that…
The global pandemic of the 2019-nCov requires the evaluation of policy interventions to mitigate future social and economic costs of quarantine measures worldwide. We propose an epidemiological model for forecasting and policy evaluation…