Related papers: COVID-19: Analytics Of Contagion On Inhomogeneous …
The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has necessitated mitigation efforts around the world. We use only reported deaths in the two weeks after the first death to determine infection parameters, in order to make predictions of hidden variables such as the…
Contagion effect refers to the causal effect of peers' behavior on the outcome of an individual in social networks. Contagion can be confounded due to latent homophily which makes contagion effect estimation very hard: nodes in a homophilic…
We study SIS epidemic spreading processes unfolding on a recent generalisation of the activity-driven modelling framework. In this model of time-varying networks each node is described by two variables: activity and attractiveness. The…
In this article, we consider a dynamic epidemiology model for the spread of the COVID-19 infection. Starting from the classical SEIR model, the model is modified so as to better describe characteristic features of the underlying pathogen…
A key scientific challenge during the outbreak of novel infectious diseases is to predict how the course of the epidemic changes under different countermeasures that limit interaction in the population. Most epidemiological models do not…
Here we propose and implement a generalized mathematical model to find the time evolution of population in infectious diseases and apply the model to study the recent COVID-19 pandemic. Our model at the core is a non-local generalization of…
Real epidemic spreading networks often composed of several kinds of networks interconnected with each other, and the interrelated networks have the different topologies and epidemic dynamics. Moreover, most human diseases are derived from…
The ongoing Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic threatens the health of humans and causes great economic losses. Predictive modelling and forecasting the epidemic trends are essential for developing countermeasures to mitigate this…
We propose a simple SIR model in order to investigate the impact of various confinement strategies on a most virulent epidemic. Our approach is motivated by the current COVID-19 pandemic. The main hypothesis is the existence of two…
Contagion, broadly construed, refers to anything that can spread infectiously from peer to peer. Examples include communicable diseases, rumors, misinformation, ideas, innovations, bank failures, and electrical blackouts. Sometimes, as in…
This paper presents a detailed mathematical investigation into the dynamics of COVID-19 infections through extended Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) and Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR) epidemiological models. By…
In this paper, we propose a realistic mathematical model taking into account the mutual interference among the interacting populations. This model attempts to describe the control (vaccination) function as a function of the number of…
This paper extends the canonical model of epidemiology, the SIRD model, to allow for time-varying parameters for real-time measurement and prediction of the trajectory of the Covid-19 pandemic. Time variation in model parameters is captured…
In network-based SIS models of infectious disease transmission, infection can only occur between directly connected individuals. This constraint naturally gives rise to spatial correlations between the states of neighboring nodes, as the…
We study the spreading of an infection within an SIS epidemiological model on a network. Susceptible agents are given the opportunity of breaking their links with infected agents, and reconnecting those links with the rest of the…
Infectious diseases are studied to understand their spreading mechanisms, to evaluate control strategies and to predict the risk and course of future outbreaks. Because people only interact with a small number of individuals, and because…
Prediction and control of spreading processes in social networks (SNs) are closely tied to the underlying connectivity patterns. Contrary to most existing efforts that exclusively focus on positive social user interactions, the impact of…
We investigate an SIR model of epidemic propagation on networks in the context of mean-field games. In a real epidemic, individuals adjust their behavior depending on the epidemic level and the impact it might have on them in the future.…
In this research, we study the propagation patterns of epidemic diseases such as the COVID-19 coronavirus, from a mathematical modeling perspective. The study is based on an extensions of the well-known susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR)…
When an epidemic spreads into a population, it is often unpractical or impossible to have a continuous monitoring of all subjects involved. As an alternative, algorithmic solutions can be used to infer the state of the whole population from…