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The asymptotic tail behaviour of sums of independent subexponential random variables is well understood, one of the main characteristics being the principle of the single big jump. We study the case of dependent subexponential random…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-11-29 Sergey Foss , Andrew Richards

Concentration inequalities form an essential toolkit in the study of high dimensional (HD) statistical methods. Most of the relevant statistics literature in this regard is based on sub-Gaussian or sub-exponential tail assumptions. In this…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-01-09 Arun Kumar Kuchibhotla , Abhishek Chakrabortty

We study the fundamental task of outlier-robust mean estimation for heavy-tailed distributions in the presence of sparsity. Specifically, given a small number of corrupted samples from a high-dimensional heavy-tailed distribution whose mean…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2022-11-30 Ilias Diakonikolas , Daniel M. Kane , Jasper C. H. Lee , Ankit Pensia

Heavy-tailed distributions are found throughout many naturally occurring phenomena. We have reviewed the models of stochastic dynamics that lead to heavy-tailed distributions (and power law distributions, in particular) including the…

Mathematical Physics · Physics 2011-05-09 Ph. Blanchard , T. Krueger , D. Volchenkov

In this work, we study the convergence \emph{in high probability} of clipped gradient methods when the noise distribution has heavy tails, ie., with bounded $p$th moments, for some $1<p\le2$. Prior works in this setting follow the same…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2023-04-05 Ta Duy Nguyen , Alina Ene , Huy L. Nguyen

Heavy-tailed distributions are infamously difficult to estimate because their moments tend to infinity as the shape of the tail decay increases. Nevertheless, this study shows the utilization of a modified group of moments for estimating a…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-31 Amenah AL-Najafi , Ugur Tirnakli , Kenric P. Nelson

We examine a distributional fixed-point equation related to a multi-type branching process that is key in the cluster sizes analysis of multivariate heavy-tailed Hawkes processes. Specifically, we explore the tail behavior of its solution…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-04-07 Jose Blanchet , Roger J. A. Laeven , Xingyu Wang , Bert Zwart

The term moderate deviations is often used in the literature to mean a class of large deviation principles that, in some sense, fills the gap between a convergence in probability of some random variables to a constant and a weak convergence…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-11-20 Rita Giuliano , Claudio Macci , Barbara Pacchiarotti

Returns distributions are heavy-tailed across asset classes. In this note, I examine the implications of this well-known stylized fact for the joint statistics of performance (absolute return) and Sharpe ratio (risk-adjusted return). Using…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2024-06-27 Matteo Smerlak

We study the full distribution $P_{N}\left(A\right)$ of sums $A = \sum_{i=1}^N$ where $x_1, \dots, x_N$ are $N \gg 1$ independent and identically distributed random variables each sampled from a given distribution $p(x)$ with a…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2025-07-09 Naftali R. Smith

In this paper we introduce and study several multivariate, heavy-tailed distribution classes, and we explore their closure properties and their applications. We consider the class of multivariate, positively decreasing distributions, and…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-04-28 Dimitrios G. Konstantinides , Charalampos D. Passalidis

We propose a novel complex-analytic method for sums of i.i.d. random variables that are heavy-tailed and integer-valued. The method combines singularity analysis, Lindel\"of integrals, and bivariate saddle points. As an application, we…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-02-13 Nicholas M. Ercolani , Sabine Jansen , Daniel Ueltschi

In this paper we consider the estimation problem for high quantiles of a heavy-tailed distribution from block data when only a few largest values are observed within blocks. We propose estimators for high quantiles and prove that these…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-06-27 Yongcheng Qi , Mengzi Xie , Jingping Yang

We obtain first decay rates of probabilities of tails of multivariate polynomials built on independent random variables with heavy tails. Then we derive stable limit theorems for nonconventional sums of the form $\sum_{Nt\geq n\geq…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-09-08 Yuri Kifer , S. R. S. Varadhan

In this paper, we investigate the precise local large deviation probabilities for random sums of independent real-valued random variables with a common distribution $F$, where $F(x+\Delta)=F((x, x+T])$ is an $\mathcal{O}$-regularly varying…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-07-05 Qiuying Zhang , Fengyang Cheng

Let $(X_n:n\geq 0)$ be a sequence of i.i.d. r.v.'s with negative mean. Set $S_0=0$ and define $S_n=X_1+... +X_n$. We propose an importance sampling algorithm to estimate the tail of $M=\max \{S_n:n\geq 0\}$ that is strongly efficient for…

Probability · Mathematics 2008-08-21 Jose Blanchet , Peter Glynn

In this work, we derive sharp non-asymptotic deviation bounds for weighted sums of Dirichlet random variables. These bounds are based on a novel integral representation of the density of a weighted Dirichlet sum. This representation allows…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-04-07 Denis Belomestny , Pierre Menard , Alexey Naumov , Daniil Tiapkin , Michal Valko

The big jump principle is a well established mathematical result for sums of independent and identically distributed random variables extracted from a fat tailed distribution. It states that the tail of the distribution of the sum is the…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2019-07-10 Alessandro Vezzani , Eli Barkai , Raffaella Burioni

This paper gives a review of concentration inequalities which are widely employed in non-asymptotical analyses of mathematical statistics in a wide range of settings, from distribution-free to distribution-dependent, from sub-Gaussian to…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-02-24 Huiming Zhang , Song Xi Chen

We study the large-time asymptotic of renewal-reward processes with a heavy-tailed waiting time distribution. It is known that the heavy tail of the distribution produces an extremely slow dynamics, resulting in a singular large deviation…

Mathematical Physics · Physics 2022-01-05 Hiroshi Horii , Raphael Lefevere , Takahiro Nemoto