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We study efficient estimation of an interventional mean associated with a point exposure treatment under a causal graphical model represented by a directed acyclic graph without hidden variables. Under such a model, it may happen that a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-12-06 F. Richard Guo , Emilija Perković , Andrea Rotnitzky

This paper addresses the problem of estimating causal directed acyclic graphs in linear non-Gaussian acyclic models with latent confounders (LvLiNGAM). Existing methods assume mutually independent latent confounders or cannot properly…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-17 Ming Cai , Penggang Gao , Hisayuki Hara

Estimating causal effects from high-dimensional, structured exposures is a fundamental challenge in modern applications ranging from neuroscience and finance to environmental science. While the literature has addressed high-dimensional…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-29 Samhita Pal , Dhrubajyoti Ghosh

Classical causal inference assumes treatments meant for a given unit do not have an effect on other units. This assumption is violated in interference problems, where new types of spillover causal effects arise, and causal inference becomes…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-09-30 Ilya Shpitser , Chan Park , Eric Tchetgen Tchetgen , Ryan Andrews

Methods that rely on proxies, without imposing strong parametric structure, are increasingly used to deal with unobserved variables in causal inference. One influential line of this work reconstructs latent distributions used to identify…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-12 Helen Guo , Ilya Shpitser , Elizabeth L. Ogburn

Reasoning about the effect of interventions and counterfactuals is a fundamental task found throughout the data sciences. A collection of principles, algorithms, and tools has been developed for performing such tasks in the last decades…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-02-08 Tara V. Anand , Adèle H. Ribeiro , Jin Tian , Elias Bareinboim

Causal discovery from observational data is a challenging task that can only be solved up to a set of equivalent solutions, called an equivalence class. Such classes, which are often large in size, encode uncertainties about the orientation…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-03-01 Philippe Brouillard , Perouz Taslakian , Alexandre Lacoste , Sebastien Lachapelle , Alexandre Drouin

We address the challenge of inferring causal effects in social network data. This results in challenges due to interference -- where a unit's outcome is affected by neighbors' treatments -- and network-induced confounding factors. While…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-20 Seyedeh Baharan Khatami , Harsh Parikh , Haowei Chen , Sudeepa Roy , Babak Salimi

Recovering the underlying Directed Acyclic Graph (DAG) structures from observational data presents a formidable challenge, partly due to the combinatorial nature of the DAG-constrained optimization problem. Recently, researchers have…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-26 Zhen Zhang , Ignavier Ng , Dong Gong , Yuhang Liu , Mingming Gong , Biwei Huang , Kun Zhang , Anton van den Hengel , Javen Qinfeng Shi

We study submodels of Gaussian DAG models defined by partial homogeneity constraints imposed on the model error variances and structural coefficients. We represent these models with colored DAGs and investigate their properties for use in…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-12-12 Tobias Boege , Kaie Kubjas , Pratik Misra , Liam Solus

Inferring the causal relationships among a set of variables in the form of a directed acyclic graph (DAG) is an important but notoriously challenging problem. Recently, advancements in high-throughput genomic perturbation screens have…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-03 Seong Woo Han , Daniel Duy Vo , Brielin C. Brown

Causal models communicate our assumptions about causes and effects in real-world phe- nomena. Often the interest lies in the identification of the effect of an action which means deriving an expression from the observed probability…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-06-20 Santtu Tikka , Juha Karvanen

Probabilistic inference in graphical models is the task of computing marginal and conditional densities of interest from a factorized representation of a joint probability distribution. Inference algorithms such as variable elimination and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2012-02-20 Ilya Shpitser , Thomas S. Richardson , James M. Robins

Missing data is a pervasive problem in data analyses, resulting in datasets that contain censored realizations of a target distribution. Many approaches to inference on the target distribution using censored observed data, rely on missing…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-07-02 Rohit Bhattacharya , Razieh Nabi , Ilya Shpitser , James M. Robins

Graphical causal models led to the development of complete non-parametric identification theory in arbitrary structured systems, and general approaches to efficient inference. Nevertheless, graphical approaches to causal inference have not…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-11-02 AmirEmad Ghassami , Ilya Shpitser

Identifiability of parameters is an essential property for a statistical model to be useful in most settings. However, establishing parameter identifiability for Bayesian networks with hidden variables remains challenging. In the context of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2014-06-04 Elizabeth S. Allman , John A. Rhodes , Elena Stanghellini , Marco Valtorta

Semiparametric inference on average causal effects from observational data is based on assumptions yielding identification of the effects. In practice, several distinct identifying assumptions may be plausible; an analyst has to make a…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-07 Tetiana Gorbach , Xavier de Luna , Juha Karvanen , Ingeborg Waernbaum

Causal processes in biomedicine may contain cycles, evolve over time or differ between populations. However, many graphical models cannot accommodate these conditions. We propose to model causation using a mixture of directed cyclic graphs…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-09-08 Eric V. Strobl

Causal graphs, such as directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) and partial ancestral graphs (PAGs), represent causal relationships among variables in a model. Methods exist for learning DAGs and PAGs from data and for converting DAGs to PAGs.…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-01-19 Nishant Subramani

Graphical models based on Directed Acyclic Graphs (DAGs) are widely used to answer causal questions across a variety of scientific and social disciplines. However, observational data alone cannot distinguish in general between DAGs…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-06-03 Federico Castelletti , Guido Consonni
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