Related papers: Human wealth evolution: trends and fluctuations
The scale and terms of aggregate borrowing in an economy depend on the manner in which wealth is distributed across potential creditors with heterogeneous beliefs about the future. This distribution evolves over time as uncertainty is…
Ecologists have long argued about the strength of density dependence and population regulation, respectively defined as the short-term and long-term rates of return to equilibrium. Here, I give three arguments for the intractability of…
The accumulation of individual fitness or wealth is modelled as a population game in which pairs of individuals are recurrently and randomly matched to play a game over a resource. In addition, all individuals have random access to a…
In a recent study (Garrett, 2011), I described theoretical arguments and empirical evidence showing how civilization evolution might be considered from a purely physical basis. One implication is that civilization exhibits the property of…
Economy correlations between the 19 richest countries are investigated through their Gross Domestic Product increments. A distance is defined between increment correlation matrix elements and their evolution studied as a function of time…
We propose a stochastic model of evolution of wealth in a society of economic agents. In the model, an agent can be in two states: inactive and active. Transitions between the states occur at random time intervals. In the active state, the…
The average and median income dependence on work experience and time is analyzed and modeled for the USA. The original data set providing the mean and median income estimates in 10 year long intervals spans a long time period of almost 35…
A single social phenomenon (such as crime, unemployment or birth rate) can be observed through temporal series corresponding to units at different levels (cities, regions, countries...). Units at a given local level may follow a collective…
The personal income distribution (PID) above the Pareto threshold is studied and modeled. A microeconomic model is proposed to simulate the PID and its evolution below and above the Pareto income threshold. The model balances processes of…
This article is a presentation of specific recent results describing scaling limits of individual-based models. Thanks to them, we wish to relate the time-scales typical of demographic dynamics and natural selection to the parameters of the…
In many European countries the growth of the real GDP per capita has been linear since 1950. An explanation for this linearity is still missing. We propose that in artificial intelligence we may find models for a linear growth of…
The Generalized Lotka Voltera (GLV) formalism has been introduced in order to explain the power law distributions in the individual wealth (w_i (t)) (Pareto law) and financial markets returns (fluctuations) (r) as a result of the…
Growth of the world population and the world economic growth were hyperbolic in the past 2,000,000 years. Recently, from around 1950, they started to be diverted to slower trajectories but they are still close to the historical hyperbolic…
The recent interest in human dynamics has led researchers to investigate the stochastic processes that explain human behaviour in various contexts. Here we propose a generative model to capture the dynamics of survival analysis,…
In the last decades, the notion that cities are in a state of equilibrium with a centralised organisation has given place to the viewpoint of cities in disequilibrium and organised from bottom to up. In this perspective, cities are evolving…
Mathematical properties of the historical GDP/cap distributions are discussed and explained. These distributions are frequently incorrectly interpreted and the Unified Growth Theory is an outstanding example of such common misconceptions.…
A general theory of innovation and progress in human society is outlined, based on the combat between two opposite forces (conservatism/inertia and speculative herding "bubble" behavior). We contend that human affairs are characterized by…
This paper reviews recent attempts at modelling inequality of wealth as an emergent phenomenon of interacting-agent processes. We point out that recent models of wealth condensation which draw their inspiration from molecular dynamics have,…
I show that if the capital accumulation dynamics is stochastic a new term, in addition to that given by accounting prices, has to be introduced in order to derive a correct estimate of the genuine wealth of an economy. In a simple model…
We present a simple two-dimensional dynamical system where two nonlinear terms, exerting respectively positive feedback and reversal, compete to create a singularity in finite time decorated by accelerating oscillations. The power law…