Related papers: Human wealth evolution: trends and fluctuations
Granger-causality in the frequency domain is an emerging tool to analyze the causal relationship between two time series. We propose a bootstrap test on unconditional and conditional Granger-causality spectra, as well as on their…
Attributes which are infrequently expressed in a population can require weeks or months of counting to reach statistical significance. But replacement in a stable population increases long-term counts to a degree determined by the…
The basic workings of inflationary models are summarized, along with the arguments that strongly suggest that our universe is the product of inflation. I describe the quantum origin of density perturbations, giving a heuristic derivation of…
It has been suggested that innovations occur mainly by combination: the more inventions accumulate, the higher the probability that new inventions are obtained from previous designs. Additionally, it has been conjectured that the…
Using the economic complexity methodology on data for disease prevalence in 195 countries during the period of 1990-2016, we propose two new metrics for quantifying the relatedness between diseases, or the `disease space' of countries. With…
Growth of human population shows no signs of stagnation. The only small disturbance is identified as being probably associated with the coinciding impacts of five demographic catastrophes. The concept of the Epoch of Malthusian Stagnation…
Climate change has become intertwined with the global economy. Here, we describe the importance of inertia to continued growth in energy consumption. Drawing from thermodynamic arguments, and using 38 years of available statistics between…
In setting up a stochastic description of the time evolution of a financial index, the challenge consists in devising a model compatible with all stylized facts emerging from the analysis of financial time series and providing a reliable…
Ergodicity describes an equivalence between the expectation value and the time average of observables. Applied to human behaviour, ergodic theories of decision-making reveal how individuals should tolerate risk in different environments. To…
Ignoring the differences between countries, human reproductive and dispersal behaviors can be described by some standardized models, so whether there is a universal law of population growth hidden in the abundant and unstructured data from…
A mean-field like stochastic evolution equation with growth and reset terms (LGGR model) is used to model wealth distribution in modern societies. The stationary solution of the model leads to an analytical form for the density function…
Business cycles (a periodic change of e.g. GDP over five to ten years) exist, but a proper explanation for it is still lacking. Here we extend the well-known NAIRU (non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment) model, resulting in a set…
This paper is part of the Global Income Dynamics Project cross-country comparison of earnings inequality, volatility, and mobility. Using data from the U.S. Census Bureau's Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics (LEHD) infrastructure…
This paper consider a highly general dissemination model that keeps track of the stochastic evolution of the distribution of wealth over a set of agents. There are two types of events: (i) units of wealth externally arrive, and (ii) units…
A simple but useful method of reciprocal values is introduced, explained and illustrated. This method simplifies the analysis of hyperbolic distributions, which are causing serious problems in the demographic and economic research. It…
Gross Domestic Product(GDP) is a widely used measurement of economic growth representing the market value of all final goods and services produced by a country within a given time. In this paper we question the assumption that GDP measures…
Using observational data and an elementary rigorous statistical fact it is easily shown that the distribution of Earth's climate is non-stationary. Examination of records of hundreds of local Industrial Era temperature histories in the…
We propose a simple quantitative model of Schumpeterian economic dynamics. New goods and services are endogenously produced through combinations of existing goods. As soon as new goods enter the market they may compete against already…
All economies require physical resource consumption to grow and maintain their structure. The modern economy is additionally characterized by private debt. The Human and Resources with MONEY (HARMONEY) economic growth model links these…
We address a novel approach for stochastic individual-based modelling of a single species population. Individuals are distinguished by their remaining lifetimes, which are regulated by the interplay between the inexorable running of time…