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The FBMS R package facilitates Bayesian model selection and model averaging in complex regression settings by employing a variety of Monte Carlo model exploration methods. At its core, the package implements an efficient Mode Jumping Markov…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-03 Florian Frommlet , Jon Lachmann , Geir Storvik , Aliaksandr Hubin

Functional mixed models are widely useful for regression analysis with dependent functional data, including longitudinal functional data with scalar predictors. However, existing algorithms for Bayesian inference with these models only…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-06-14 Thomas Y. Sun , Daniel R. Kowal

We develop a Bayesian tree ensemble model to estimate heterogeneous treatment effects in censored survival data with high-dimensional covariates. Instead of imposing sparsity through the tree structure, we place a horseshoe prior directly…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-08 Tijn Jacobs , Wessel N. van Wieringen , Stéphanie L. van der Pas

Inferring the infinitesimal rates of continuous-time Markov chains (CTMCs) is a central challenge in many scientific domains. This task is hindered by three factors: quadratic growth in the number of rates as the CTMC state space expands,…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-09 Filippo Monti , Xiang Ji , Marc A. Suchard

Phylogenetic comparative methods (PCMs) are widely used to study trait evolution. However, many evolutionary histories involve reticulate evolutionary scenarios, such as hybridization, that violate core assumptions of these methods. In this…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2026-03-30 Lydia Morley , Emma Lehmberg , Sungsik Kong

Increasingly complex applications involve large datasets in combination with non-linear and high dimensional mathematical models. In this context, statistical inference is a challenging issue that calls for pragmatic approaches that take…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2013-01-31 Andreas Raue , Clemens Kreutz , Fabian Joachim Theis , Jens Timmer

Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) is widely used for sampling from high dimensional target distributions with densities known up to proportionality. While HMC exhibits favorable scaling properties in high dimensions, it struggles with strongly…

Computation · Statistics 2025-07-30 Joonha Park

A fully Bayesian approach is proposed for ultrahigh-dimensional nonparametric additive models in which the number of additive components may be larger than the sample size, though ideally the true model is believed to include only a small…

Methodology · Statistics 2013-09-24 Zuofeng Shang , Ping Li

The Bayesian analysis of infectious disease surveillance data from multiple locations typically involves building and fitting a spatio-temporal model of how the disease spreads in the structured population. Here we present new generally…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-03-04 Matthew Adeoye , Xavier Didelot , Simon EF Spencer

Variational inference techniques based on inducing variables provide an elegant framework for scalable posterior estimation in Gaussian process (GP) models. Besides enabling scalability, one of their main advantages over sparse…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-02-24 Simone Rossi , Markus Heinonen , Edwin V. Bonilla , Zheyang Shen , Maurizio Filippone

Metagenomics provides a powerful new tool set for investigating evolutionary interactions with the environment. However, an absence of model-based statistical methods means that researchers are often not able to make full use of this…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2013-06-27 John O'Brien , Xavier Didelot , Zamin Iqbal , LucasAmenga-Etego , Bartu Ahiska , Daniel Falush

Bayesian phylogenetic methods are generating noticeable enthusiasm in the field of molecular systematics. Many phylogenetic models are often at stake and different approaches are used to compare them within a Bayesian framework. The Bayes…

Computation · Statistics 2010-06-22 Serena Arima , Luca Tardella

We propose a new framework of variance-reduced Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) methods for sampling from an $L$-smooth and $m$-strongly log-concave distribution, based on a unified formulation of biased and unbiased variance reduction…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-02-10 Zhengmian Hu , Feihu Huang , Heng Huang

Decoding complex relationships among large numbers of variables with relatively few observations is one of the crucial issues in science. One approach to this problem is Gaussian graphical modeling, which describes conditional independence…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-04-26 A. Mohammadi , E. C. Wit

Survival models are used to analyze time-to-event data in a variety of disciplines. Proportional hazard models provide interpretable parameter estimates, but proportional hazards assumptions are not always appropriate. Non-parametric models…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-07-08 Richard D. Payne , Nilabja Guha , Bani K. Mallick

It is very challenging to select informative features from tens of thousands of measured features in high-throughput data analysis. Recently, several parametric/regression models have been developed utilizing the gene network information to…

Applications · Statistics 2014-08-01 Yize Zhao , Jian Kang , Tianwei Yu

To understand biological diversification, it is important to account for large-scale processes that affect the evolutionary history of groups of co-distributed populations of organisms. Such events predict temporally clustered divergences…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2014-08-11 Jamie R. Oaks

In recent years dynamical modelling has been provided with a range of breakthrough methods to perform exact Bayesian inference. However it is often computationally unfeasible to apply exact statistical methodologies in the context of large…

Computation · Statistics 2014-12-24 Umberto Picchini , Julie Lyng Forman

This work develops formal statistical inference procedures for machine learning ensemble methods. Ensemble methods based on bootstrapping, such as bagging and random forests, have improved the predictive accuracy of individual trees, but…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-09-11 Lucas Mentch , Giles Hooker

We develop a scalable multi-step Monte Carlo algorithm for inference under a large class of nonparametric Bayesian models for clustering and classification. Each step is "embarrassingly parallel" and can be implemented using the same Markov…

Computation · Statistics 2018-06-08 Yang Ni , Peter Müller , Maurice Diesendruck , Sinead Williamson , Yitan Zhu , Yuan Ji