Related papers: On a quarantine model of coronavirus infection and…

The COVID-19 pandemic has been a great catastrophe that upended human lives and caused millions of deaths all over the world. The rapid spread of the virus, with its early-stage exponential growth and subsequent 'waves', caught many medical…

We use daily data from Lombardy, the Italian region most affected by the COVID-19 outbreak, to calibrate a SIR model individually on each municipality. These are all covered by the same health system and, in the post-lockdown phase we focus…

In February 2020 the first human infection with SARS-CoV-2 was reported in Germany. Since then the local public health offices have been responsible to monitor and react to the dynamics of the pandemic. One of their major tasks is to…

We have proposed an SEIR compartmental mathematical model. The prime objective of this study is to analyze and forecast the pandemic in Italy for the upcoming months. The basic reproduction number has been calculated. Based on the current…

We propose a tractable epidemic model that includes containment measures. In the absence of containment measures, the epidemics spread exponentially fast whenever the infectivity rate is positive, $\lambda>0$. The containment measures are…

We model the COVID-19 coronavirus epidemic in China. We use early reported case data to predict the cumulative number of reported cases to a final size. The key features of our model are the timing of implementation of major public policies…

After the COVID-19 pandemic, we saw an increase in demand for epidemiological mathematical models. The goal of this work is to study the optimal control for an age-structured model as a strategy of quarantine of infected people, which is…

We analyze the identifiability and observability of the well-known SIR epidemic model with an additional compartment Q of the sub-population of infected individuals that are placed in quarantine (SIQR model), considering that the flow of…

Understanding the number of individuals who have been infected with the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2, and the extent to which social distancing policies have been effective at limiting its spread, are critical for effective policy going…

The spread of infectious diseases is a major challenge in our contemporary world, especially after the recent outbreak of Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). The quarantine strategy is one of the important intervention measures to control…

Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is a severe ongoing novel pandemic that has emerged in Wuhan, China, in December 2019. As of October 13, the outbreak has spread rapidly across the world, affecting over 38 million people, and causing over 1…

The rapid spreading of SARS-CoV-2 and its dramatic consequences, are forcing policymakers to take strict measures in order to keep the population safe. At the same time, societal and economical interactions are to be safeguarded. A wide…

Modeling epidemic dynamics plays an important role in studying how diseases spread, predicting their future course, and designing strategies to control them. In this letter, we introduce a model of SIR (susceptible-infected-removed) type…

We consider a global (location independent) model of pandemic growth which generalizes the SIR model to accommodate important features of the COVID-19 pandemic, notably the implementation of pandemic reduction measures. This "SHIR" model is…

This is a pedagogical paper on estimating the number of people that can be infected by one infectious person during an epidemic outbreak, known as the reproduction number. Knowing the number is crucial for developing policy responses. There…

The rapid transmission of the highly contagious novel coronavirus has been represented through several data-guided approaches across targeted geographies, in an attempt to understand when the pandemic will be under control and imposed…

In a pandemic like Covid-19, there are many countries of lower-earning cannot provide a complete locked-down within the duration of the detected case. The locked-down may result in famine throughout the region of underdeveloped countries…

In recent years, numerous advances have been made in understanding how epidemic dynamics is affected by changes in individual behaviours. We propose an SIS-based compartmental model to tackle the simultaneous and coupled evolution of an…

After the breakout of the disease caused by the new virus COVID-19, the mitigation stage has been reached in most of the countries in the world. During this stage, a more accurate data analysis of the daily reported cases and other…

A reasonable prediction of infectious diseases transmission process under different disease control strategies is an important reference point for policy makers. Here we established a dynamic transmission model via Python and realized…