Related papers: The generalized Price equation: forces that change…
Large variations in stock prices happen with sufficient frequency to raise doubts about existing models, which all fail to account for non-Gaussian statistics. We construct simple models of a stock market, and argue that the large…
Modern biomedicine is challenged to predict the effects of genetic variation. Systematic functional assays of point mutants of proteins have provided valuable empirical information, but vast regions of sequence space remain unexplored.…
We study the problem of what causes prices to change. We define the mechanical impact of a trading order as the change in future prices in the absence of any future changes in decision making, and its it informational impact as the…
This paper presents a general theory that aims at explaining timescales observed empirically in technology transitions and predicting those of future transitions. This framework is used further to derive a theory for exploring the dynamics…
The dynamical evolution of many economic, sociological, biological and physical systems tends to be dominated by a relatively small number of unexpected, large changes (`extreme events'). We study the large, internal changes produced in a…
In order to formulate the Fundamental Theorem of Natural Selection, Fisher defined the average excess and average effect of a gene substitution. Finding these notions to be somewhat opaque, some authors have recommended reformulating…
The possibility that price dynamics is affected by its distance from a moving average has been recently introduced as new statistical tool. The purpose is to identify the tendency of the price dynamics to be attractive or repulsive with…
The quotient of random variables with normal distributions is examined and proven to have have power law decay, with density $f\left( x\right) \simeq f_{0}x^{-2}$, with the coefficient depending on the means and variances of the numerator…
Frequency dependent selection and demographic fluctuations play important roles in evolutionary and ecological processes. Under frequency dependent selection, the average fitness of the population may increase or decrease based on…
The dynamics of adaptation is difficult to predict because it is highly stochastic even in large populations. The uncertainty emerges from number fluctuations, called genetic drift, arising in the small number of particularly fit…
A practical statistical analysis on the regional populations and GDPs of China is conducted. The result shows that the distribution of the populations and that of the GDPs obeys the shifted power law, respectively. To understand these…
The role of the selection pressure and mutation amplitude on the behavior of a single-species population evolving on a two-dimensional lattice, in a periodically changing environment, is studied both analytically and numerically. The…
We address the question of how stock prices respond to changes in demand. We quantify the relations between price change $G$ over a time interval $\Delta t$ and two different measures of demand fluctuations: (a) $\Phi$, defined as the…
The quasi-species equation describes the evolution of the probability that a random individual in a population carries a given genome. Here we map the quasi-species equation for individuals of a self-reproducing population to an ensemble of…
A continuous approximation for the results of [1] is obtained. In this approximation the energy distribution is represented in the form of the product of the Gibbs factor and superstatistics factor. The mutual weights of the factors are…
We propose a simple statistical-physics-inspired model for the effect of intrinsic fluctuations on supply and demand in markets. The model consists of agents that trade in two types of goods of which the total number is separately…
This paper presents a semi-quantitative mathematical model of the changes over time in the statistical distribution of well-being of individuals in a society. The model predicts that when individuals overvalue the more socially conspicuous…
The area of population dynamics has a rich history of the development and analysis of models of biological and social phenomena using ordinary differential equations. This paper describes a method for understanding the influence one…
We argue that statistical mechanics of systems with relaxation implies breaking the energy function of systems into two having different transformation rules. With this duality the energy approach incorporates the generalized vortex forces.…
We introduce a general modeling framework to predict the outcomes, at the population level, of individual psychology and behavior. The framework prescribes that researchers build a cost function that embodies knowledge of what trait values…