Related papers: Ostwald growth rate in controlled Covid-19 epidemi…
Within a short period of time, COVID-19 grew into a world-wide pandemic. Transmission by pre-symptomatic and asymptomatic viral carriers rendered intervention and containment of the disease extremely challenging. Based on reported infection…
In this study, we present a new epidemiological model, with contamination from confirmed and unreported. We also compute equilibria and study their stability without intervention strategies. Optimal control theory has proven to be a…
In the context of the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic, several reports and studies have attempted to model and predict the spread of the disease. There is also intense debate about policies for limiting the damage, both to health and to the…
Given multiple new COVID-19 variants are continuously emerging, non-pharmaceutical interventions are still primary control strategies to curb the further spread of coronavirus. However, implementing strict interventions over extended…
While many efforts are currently devoted to vaccines development and administration, social distancing measures, including severe restrictions such as lockdowns, remain fundamental tools to contain the spread of COVID-19. A crucial point…
Widespread growth signatures in COVID-19 confirmed case counts are reported, with sharp transitions between three distinct dynamical regimes (exponential, superlinear and sublinear). Through analytical and numerical analysis, a novel…
Since the first recording of what we now call Covid-19 infection in Wuhan, Hubei province, China on Dec 31, 2019, the disease has spread worldwide and met with a wide variety of social distancing and quarantine policies. The effectiveness…
At the end of April 20, 2020, there were only a few new COVID-19 cases remaining in China, whereas the rest of the world had shown increases in the number of new cases. It is of extreme importance to develop an efficient statistical model…
Modeling and analysis of the large scale Covid-19 pandemic data can yield inferences about it's dynamics and characteristics of disease propagation. These inferences can then be correlated with contextual factors like population density,…
Motivated by COVID-19, we develop and analyze a simple stochastic model for a disease spread in human population. We track how the number of infected and critically ill people develops over time in order to estimate the demand that is…
We have proposed a new form of growth rate for population ecology. Generally, the growth rate is dependent on the size of the population at that particular epoch. We have introduced an alternative time-dependent form of growth rate. This…
The emergence of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in the United States has forced federal and local governments to implement containment measures. Moreover, the severity of the situation has sparked engagement by both the research and…
The COVID-19 pandemic has presented unprecedented challenges worldwide, with its impact varying significantly across different geographic and socioeconomic contexts. This study employs a clustering analysis to examine the diversity of…
The novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 and resulting COVID-19 disease have had an unprecedented spread and continue to cause an increasing number of fatalities worldwide. While vaccines are still under development, social distancing, extensive…
The epidemiology of pandemics is classically viewed using geographical and political borders; however, these artificial divisions can result in a misunderstanding of the current epidemiological state within a given region. To improve upon…
Phenomenological and deterministic models are often used for the estimation of transmission parameters in an epidemic and for the prediction of its growth trajectory. Such analyses are usually based on single peak outbreak dynamics. In…
The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic is challenging every part of society. From a scientific point of view the first major task is to predict the dynamics of the pandemic, allowing governments to allocate proper resources and measures to fight it,…
In this paper, we propose a dynamical model to describe the transmission of COVID-19, which is spreading in China and many other countries. To avoid a larger outbreak in the worldwide, Chinese government carried out a series of strong…
National responses to the Covid-19 pandemic varied markedly across countries, from business-as-usual to complete shutdowns. Policies aimed at disrupting the viral transmission cycle and preventing the healthcare system from being…
We investigate adaptive strategies to robustly and optimally control the COVID-19 pandemic via social distancing measures based on the example of Germany. Our goal is to minimize the number of fatalities over the course of two years without…