Related papers: Ostwald growth rate in controlled Covid-19 epidemi…
The temporal growth in the number of deaths in the COVID-19 epidemic is subexponential. Here we show that a piecewise quadratic law provides an excellent fit during the thirty days after the first three fatalities on January 20 and later…
The COVID-19 pandemic has affected all countries of the world producing a substantial number of fatalities accompanied by a major disruption in their social, financial, and educational organization. The strict disciplinary measures…
As COVID-19 is rapidly spreading across the globe, short-term modeling forecasts provide time-critical information for decisions on containment and mitigation strategies. A main challenge for short-term forecasts is the assessment of key…
The COVID-19 pandemic caused by the coronavirus had a significant effect on social, economic, and health systems globally. The virus emerged in Wuhan, China, and spread worldwide resulting in severe disease, death, and social interference.…
Current available data of the worldwide impact of the COVID-19 pandemic has been analyzed using dimensional analysis and self-similarity hypotheses. We show that the time series of infected population and deaths of the most impacted and…
COVID-19 is a global health crisis that has had unprecedented, widespread impact on households across the United States and has been declared a global pandemic on March 11, 2020 by World Health Organization (WHO) [1]. According to Centers…
We analyze risk factors correlated with the initial transmission growth rate of the recent COVID-19 pandemic in different countries. The number of cases follows in its early stages an almost exponential expansion; we chose as a starting…
This work systematically conducts a data analysis based on the numbers of both cumulative and daily confirmed COVID-19 cases and deaths in a time span through April 2020 to June 2022 for over 200 countries around the world. Such research…
The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has progressed with varying degrees of intensity in individual countries, suggesting it is important to analyse factors that vary between them. We study measures of `population-weighted density', which capture…
During the COVID pandemic, periods of exponential growth of the disease have been mitigated by containment measures that in different occasions have resulted in a power-law growth of the number of cases. The first observation of such…
During the course of an epidemic, one of the most challenging tasks for authorities is to decide what kind of restrictive measures to introduce and when these should be enforced. In order to take informed decisions in a fully rational…
In this work, we study the causal relations among German regions in terms of the spread of Covid-19 since the beginning of the pandemic, taking into account the restriction policies that were applied by the different federal states. We…
Since the outbreak of COVID-19, many data analyses have been done. Some of them are based on the classical epidemiological approach that assumes an exponential growth, but a few studies report that a power-law scaling may provide a better…
The existence of an exponential growth phase during early stages of a pandemic is often taken for granted. However, for the 2019 novel coronavirus epidemic, the early exponential phase lasted only for about six days, while the quadratic…
The control of Covid 19 epidemics by public health policy in Italy during the first and the second epidemic waves has been driven by using reproductive number Rt(t) to identify the supercritical (percolative), the subcritical (arrested),…
The COVID-19 pandemic has plagued the world for months. The U.S. has taken measures to counter it. On a daily basis, newly confirmed cases have been reported. In the early days, these numbers showed an increasing trend. Recently, the…
The cumulative number of confirmed infected individuals by the new coronavirus outbreak until April 30th, 2020, is presented for the countries: Belgium, Brazil, United Kingdom (UK), and United States of America (USA). After an initial…
We study the reported data from the COVID-19 pandemic outbreak in January - May 2020 in 119 countries. We observe that the time series of active cases in individual countries (the difference of the total number of confirmed infections and…
We have established a novel mathematical model that considers various aspects of the spreading of the virus, including, the transmission based on being in the latent period, environment to human transmission, governmental decisions, and…
Starting with the power law for the total number of detected infections, we propose differential equations describing the effect of momentum epidemic management. Our 2-phase formula matches very well the curves of the total numbers of the…