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The fractional Brownian motion (fBm) is parameterized by the Hurst exponent $H\in(0,1)$, which determines the dependence structure and regularity of sample paths. Empirical findings suggest that the Hurst exponent may be non-constant in…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-11-14 Fabian Mies , Benedikt Wilkens

This paper is devoted to the introduction of a new class of consistent estimators of the fractal dimension of locally self-similar Gaussian processes. These estimators are based on convex combinations of sample quantiles of discrete…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-06-13 Jean-François Coeurjolly

Different investment strategies are adopted in short-term and long-term depending on the time scales, even though time scales are adhoc in nature. Empirical mode decomposition based Hurst exponent analysis and variance technique have been…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2021-03-10 Ajit Mahata , Md Nurujjaman

We investigated the quality of forecasting of fractional Brownian motion, and new method for estimating of Hurst exponent is validated. Stochastic model of the time series in the form of converted fractional Brownian motion is proposed. The…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-04-05 Valeria Bondarenko , Victor Bondarenko , Kiryl Truskovsky , Ina Taralova

We introduce Pairwise Distance-Diffusion Analysis (PDDA), a geometric framework for estimating the Hurst exponent from distance plots of long-memory stochastic processes. A single construction yields two complementary routes: R/S-PDDA, a…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-22 Diogo C. Soriano , Frederique Vanheusden , Slawomir J. Nasuto

This paper addresses the problem of estimating the Hurst exponent of the fractional Brownian motion from continuous time noisy sample. Consistent estimation in the setup under consideration is possible only if either the length of the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-10-09 P. Chigansky , M. Kleptsyna

A desirable property of an autocovariance estimator is to be robust to the presence of additive outliers. It is well-known that the sample autocovariance, being based on moments, does not have this property. Hence, the use of an…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2009-12-24 Céline Lévy-Leduc , Hélène Boistard , Eric Moulines , Murad S. Taqqu , Valderio A. Reisen

We introduce a class of Gaussian processes with stationary increments which exhibit long-range dependence. The class includes fractional Brownian motion with Hurst parameter H>1/2 as a typical example. We establish infinite and finite past…

Probability · Mathematics 2011-11-10 Akihiko Inoue , Vo Van Anh

To assess whether a given time series can be modeled by a stochastic process possessing long range correlation one usually applies one of two types of analysis methods: the spectral method and the random walk analysis. The first objective…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2009-11-07 Govindan Rangarajan , Mingzhou Ding

We consider stochastic differential equation involving pathwise integral with respect to fractional Brownian motion. The estimates for the Hurst parameter are constructed according to first- and second-order quadratic variations of observed…

Probability · Mathematics 2012-06-28 K. Kubilius , Y. Mishura

This paper addresses the estimation of locally stationary long-range dependent processes, a methodology that allows the statistical analysis of time series data exhibiting both nonstationarity and strong dependency. A time-varying…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2010-11-12 Wilfredo Palma , Ricardo Olea

A new nonparametric estimator of the local Hurst function of a multifractional Gaussian process based on the increment ratio (IR) statistic is defined. In a general frame, the point-wise and uniform weak and strong consistency and a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2012-11-29 Jean-Marc Bardet , Donatas Surgailis

Strongly consistent and asymptotically normal estimators of the Hurst parameter of solutions of stochastic differential equations are proposed. The estimators are based on discrete observations of the underlying processes.

Probability · Mathematics 2015-07-28 Kestutis Kubilius , Viktor Skorniakov

We present the results of a simulation study into the properties of 12 different estimators of the Hurst parameter, $H$, or the fractional integration parameter, $d$, in long memory time series. We compare and contrast their performance on…

Methodology · Statistics 2009-01-08 William Rea , Les Oxley , Marco Reale , Jennifer Brown

The characteristic feature of the discrete scale invariant (DSI) processes is the invariance of their finite dimensional distributions by dilation for certain scaling factor. DSI process with piecewise linear drift and stationary increments…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-09-05 N. Modarresi , S. Rezakhah

Wind farms can be regarded as complex systems that are, on the one hand, coupled to the nonlinear, stochastic characteristics of weather and, on the other hand, strongly influenced by supervisory control mechanisms. One crucial problem in…

Applications · Statistics 2021-01-22 Tobias Braun , Matthias Waechter , Joachim Peinke , Thomas Guhr

In [Han \& Schied, 2023, \textit{arXiv 2307.02582}], an easily computable scale-invariant estimator $\widehat{\mathscr{R}}^s_n$ was constructed to estimate the Hurst parameter of the drifted fractional Brownian motion $X$ from its…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2025-09-09 Xiyue Han , Alexander Schied

We investigate the statistical evidence for the use of `rough' fractional processes with Hurst exponent $H< 0.5$ for the modeling of volatility of financial assets, using a model-free approach. We introduce a non-parametric method for…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2023-07-11 Rama Cont , Purba Das

The common assumption of universal behavior in stock market data can sometimes lead to false conclusions. In statistical physics, the Hurst exponents characterizing long-range correlations are often closely related to universal exponents.…

Physics and Society · Physics 2015-06-26 Zoltan Eisler , Janos Kertesz

Identifying and quantifying memory are often critical steps in developing a mechanistic understanding of stochastic processes. These are particularly challenging and necessary when exploring processes that exhibit long-range correlations.…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2016-04-20 Sarah E. Marzen , James P. Crutchfield