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Related papers: Benchmarking Forecasting Models for Space Weather …

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Although vital for life on Earth, solar activity poses questions and increasing threats to humanity due to the Sun's unknown dynamics, intensified by our dependence on terrestrial and space-based infrastructure. This situation is compounded…

Space Physics · Physics 2025-01-06 Leonidas Askianakis

The intensity and energy spectrum of energetic charged radiation in the heliosphere are significantly influenced by solar activity. This phenomenon is known as solar modulation of galactic cosmic rays. As interplanetary travel becomes a…

High Energy Astrophysical Phenomena · Physics 2025-09-16 Miguel Orcinha , Fernando Barão , Bruna Bertucci , Emanuele Fiandrini , David Pelosi , Nicola Tomassetti

Our current sampling of the near-Earth space environment is wholly insufficient to measure the highly variable processes therein and make predictions on par with lower atmospheric weather. We sketch out the scientific rationale for a…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2023-01-12 Ryan Volz , Philip J. Erickson , Scott E. Palo , Jorge L. Chau , Juha Vierinen , Thomas Y. Chen

Ambitious satellite constellation projects by commercial entities and the ease of access to space in recent times have led to a dramatic proliferation of low-Earth space traffic. It jeopardizes space safety and long-term sustainability,…

Solar wind forecasting plays a crucial role in space weather prediction, yet significant uncertainties persist due to incomplete magnetic field observations of the Sun. Isolating the solar wind forecasting errors due to these effects is…

Using information on geomagnetic activity, sunspot numbers and cosmogenic isotopes, supported by historic eclipse images and in conjunction with models, it has been possible to reconstruct annual means of solar wind speed and number density…

Space Physics · Physics 2017-08-18 Mike Lockwood , Mathew J. Owens , Luke A. Barnard , Chris J. Scott , Clare E. Watt

Predicting air traffic congestion and flow management is essential for airlines and Air Navigation Service Providers (ANSP) to enhance operational efficiency. Accurate estimates of future airport capacity and airspace density are vital for…

The solar cycle and its associated magnetic activity are the main drivers behind changes in the interplanetary environment and the Earth's upper atmosphere (commonly referred to as space weather). These changes have a direct impact on the…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2013-04-12 Andrés Muñoz-Jaramillo , María Dasi-Espuig , Laura A. Balmaceda , Edward E. DeLuca

Radiative transfer equilibrium models of nearby interstellar matter (ISM) yield the boundary conditions of the heliosphere when constrained with observations of ISM inside and outside of the heliosphere. Filtration factors for interstellar…

Astrophysics · Physics 2015-06-24 Priscilla C. Frisch

Climate models play a crucial role in understanding the effect of environmental and man-made changes on climate to help mitigate climate risks and inform governmental decisions. Large global climate models such as the Community Earth System…

Applications · Statistics 2020-12-02 Niccolò Dalmasso , Galen Vincent , Dorit Hammerling , Ann B. Lee

As renewable distributed energy resources (DERs) penetrate the power grid at an accelerating speed, it is essential for operators to have accurate solar photovoltaic (PV) energy forecasting for efficient operations and planning. Generally,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-09-26 Hossein Sangrody , Morteza Sarailoo , Ning Zhou , Nhu Tran , Mahdi Motalleb , Elham Foruzan

The capability to predict the parameters of an SEP event such as its onset, peak flux, and duration is critical to assessing any potential space weather impact. We present a new flexible modelling system simulating the propagation of Solar…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2015-06-01 M. S. Marsh , S. Dalla , M. Dierckxsens , T. Laitinen , N. B. Crosby

Space weather predictions are necessary to avoid damage caused by intense geomagnetic storms. Such strong storms are usually caused by a co-rotating interaction region (CIR) passing at Earth or by the arrival of strong coronal mass…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2025-01-28 Tinatin Baratashvili , Beatrice Popescu Braileanu , Fabio Bacchini , Rony Keppens , Stefaan Poedts

Environment plays a pivotal role in shaping the evolution of satellite galaxies. Analyzing the properties related to the cold gas phase of satellites provides insights into unravelling the complexity of environmental effects. We use the…

Astrophysics of Galaxies · Physics 2024-01-17 Hongxing Chen , Lizhi Xie , Jie Wang , Wenkai Hu , Gabriella De Lucia , Fabio Fontanot , Michaela Hirschamnn

Halo coronal mass ejections (HCMEs) are responsible of the most severe geomagnetic storms. A prediction of their geoeffectiveness and travel time to Earth's vicinity is crucial to forecast space weather. Unfortunately coronagraphic…

Astrophysics · Physics 2009-11-13 G. Michalek , N. Gopalswamy , S. Yashiro

We present a probabilistic data-driven weather model capable of providing an ensemble of high spatial resolution realizations of 87 variables at arbitrary forecast length and ensemble size. The model uses a stretched grid, dedicating 2.5 km…

The rich history of observing system simulation experiments (OSSEs) does not yet include a well-established framework for using climate models. The need for a climate OSSE is triggered by the need to quantify the value of a particular…

Disturbances in space weather can negatively affect several fields, including aviation and aerospace, satellites, oil and gas industries, and electrical systems, leading to economic and commercial losses. Solar flares are the most…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2020-05-07 T. Cinto , A. L. S. Gradvohl , G. P. Coelho , A. E. A. da Silva

Gaps in space weather observations that can be addressed with small satellites are identified. Potential improvements in solar inputs to space weather models, space radiation control, estimations of energy budget of the upper Earth's…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2021-03-25 Olga Verkhoglyadova , Charles Bussy-Virat , Amir Caspi , David Jackson , Vladimir Kalegaev , Jeffrey Klenzing , Jesus Nieves-Chinchilla , Angelos Vourlidas

While humans become more reliant on Earth's space environment, the potential for significant harm from severe space weather continues to grow. As structures from the sun reach Earth's magnetosphere and space environment, they deposit energy…

Space Physics · Physics 2025-10-23 B. M. Walsh , D. T. Welling , Z. Huang